Trump remains GOP voter’s first choice.
Donald Trump was indicted for the third time on Tuesday in connection with his alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 election, but judging by the most recent polling you might not know it.
Though we don’t know how his latest charges will affect his popularity yet, Republican voters don’t appear phased by his ongoing legal battles overall. Trump is currently leading the GOP race across almost all demographic, regional, and ideological groups with a 37-point lead over his nearest contender, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, according to the most recent New York Times/Siena College poll. He’s also in a dead heat with Democratic rival President Biden: The same survey found both are tied at 43 percent support in a hypothetical rematch.
There’s still a long way to go, though. We still have five months before the first primary contest and Trump could face yet another indictment in Georgia, where he attempted to pressure state election officials to overturn his loss.
As the primary field continues to take shape, here’s where Republican candidates stand now and why Trump remains the reigning kingmaker.
How does Trump stack up against his rivals?
The latest New York Times/Siena College survey found that Trump’s leading DeSantis by 54 percent to 17 percent among likely Republican primary voters. That marks quite a turnaround from February when the former president trailed the Florida governor by 13 percent in one head-to-head match-up
Though he has long been considered Trump’s most formidable opponent, DeSantis has been losing steam over the latest few months and even his own team has acknowledged it. Steve Cortes, the national spokesman for the pro-DeSantis political group Never Back Down, said in July that the governor is “way behind,” calling Trump the “runaway front-runner.”
Meanwhile, other 2024 Republican presidential candidates are hanging on by single digits: Former Vice President Mike Pence, ex-United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley, and South Carolina Senator Tim Scott each notched 3 percent support. Former New Jersey governor Chris Christie and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy received 2 percent of those polled. The rest of the candidates, including former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson and Conservative talk radio host Larry Elder, polled less than one percent.
Have Trump’s legal battles impacted his support?
Despite his alleged criminal activity, Republican voters remain loyal to Trump. The New York Times/Siena College survey also showed that 74 percent of GOP respondents said they didn’t believe the former president committed serious crimes, despite being indicted twice at the time of the poll. (This includes charges related to his business fraud in New York and those surrounding his handling of sensitive government documents.)
This sentiment could have to do with the fact that most of the electorate questions the motivations behind Trump’s indictments. According to a CBS poll released in June, 76 percent of likely GOP voters believe special counsel Jack Smith’s indictment in the classified documents case was “politically motivated.”
If anything, these charges might’ve given the former president a boost. According to the same CBS survey, 61 percent of GOP voters said the charges against Trump didn’t change how they viewed him, with 14 percent saying it made them view him more positively.
“We get to this point where people go, ‘I don’t care if he’s a criminal, he’s our criminal,’” political commentator Charlie Sykes told Katie in an Instagram Live on Monday. “’The other side is so evil and is so dangerous, that we’re going to support him no matter what.’”
How are GOP rivals responding to Trump’s charges?
So far, Trump’s fellow GOP challengers have been reluctant to criticize the former president about his criminal charges.
While DeSantis said Trump should’ve done more to stop Jan. 6, he also didn’t believe that the former president necessarily committed any crimes. He also attacked members of the grand jury in Washington, D.C. who indicted the former president, calling the district a “swamp.”
Others have also spoken out about Trump’s alleged criminal activity. Pence said he was “deeply troubled” by the classified documents indictment, but said it’s important to see all the facts in the case. Ramaswamy has perhaps gone the furthest to defend the president by vowing to pardon Trump if elected.
Critics believe the 2024 hopefuls are afraid to stand up to the former president and hold him accountable because he remains a popular figure within the party. “Frankly, people like Ron DeSantis and others were running against him who are not willing to speak truth to the Republican base,” says Sykes, who’s the editor-in-chief of the anti-Trump and conservative website, The Bulwark. “There’s been a lot of cowardice.”
But all of these candidates face a delicate balancing act as they stage an uphill battle against the former president. This could be put to the test in the upcoming Republican primary debate in Milwaukee, Wisconsin on August 23, so that will be a spectacle you won’t want to miss.
