Is it really Biden or bust?
As the November election inches closer, reports have surfaced that Democrats are growing increasingly worried that President Biden’s age and mental fitness could potentially cost the party the White House. The natural next question becomes, could anyone replace Joe Biden?
Biden’s troubles began with the release of special counsel Robert Hur’s report on his handling of classified documents, in which the 81-year-old was characterized as a “well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory” and “diminished faculties.” Coupled with his low approval ratings and the perception that Biden is already too old to serve another term, some pundits, like Democratic strategist Fred Hicks, worry about his prospects for reelection. “If this election is about President Biden’s age and mental acuity, then Democrats lose,” Hicks tells Katie Couric Media. “If it’s about public policy, then Democrats win.”
It’s hard to reconcile these factors with the fact that Biden won the Democratic nomination. But that doesn’t mean people are happy about it — some have even gone so far as to cast doubts on the very notion that he’s running at all. And they’re not alone: liberals and pundits alike have been pining over potential replacements, even though incumbent presidents aren’t usually challenged by members of their own party. Interestingly, many of the hats people are tossing in the ring (unsolicited) belong to those who are already actively supporting the president’s reelection campaign, like Democratic leaders California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, both of whom have seen their political stars rise in the last few years.
While we don’t have a crystal ball, we did a little research into the top names being floated to possibly replace Biden should he be unable or decide not to run for a second term, according to Hicks and others.
Who could replace Joe Biden?
Vice President Kamala Harris
Kamala Harris is seen as the most obvious alternative to Biden because of her position as vice president. It helps that she’s more than two decades his junior, too. She also has presidential ambitions of her own as demonstrated by her (unsuccessful) White House bid in 2020.
If the president exits the race, Democrats believe Harris could replace him, but she’s not seen as a very promising option. According to Hicks, Harris’ biggest weaknesses are her inability to connect with fellow Black voters and voters overall as well as her background as prosecutor. The polls reflect this sentiment: According to an average of polls compiled by FiveThirtyEight.com, her approval rating currently stands at 37.5 percent, which isn’t much higher than Biden’s, which hovers around 40.4 percent.
On top of that, she’s had a few gaffes of her own — for instance, in 2022, she mistakenly touted the U.S. “alliance with the Republic of North Korea” during a speech at Korea’s Demilitarized Zone. She also received heavy criticism that same year for telling would-be migrants to “not come” north because they would be “turned back” at the U.S. border. But some say not all of the attacks on Harris are fair — after all, Harris is the first woman, the first Black American, and the first Asian American to occupy the office, which has got to be a lot of pressure.
“The whole question of Kamala Harris’s weaknesses is a very tangled one because how much of the criticism of her is gendered or race-related?” The Hill reporter Niall Stanage tells us. “So untangling what are unfair criticisms of Harris from what are fair criticisms of Harris is quite difficult, but the bottom line is she wouldn’t necessarily do any better than Biden would do in a presidential election.”
Despite her missteps and lack of popularity among voters, Harris continues to insist she’s “ready to serve” as commander-in-chief if necessary and continues to defend the president amid attacks on his age. In her interview with Katie Couric, she said Republicans often attack the president over the issue because they have “nothing to run on.”
Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips
Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips at least appears to be the only one willing to fill Biden’s shoes. He’s currently in the midst of a long-shot primary bid — much to the chagrin of fellow Democrats who want to stick with the easiest win.
Prominent Democrats like Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz were baffled by Phillips’ decision to run against Biden, likening it to a political sideshow. His colleagues also haven’t taken to it too kindly — California Rep. Robert Garcia called Phillips’ campaign “very disrespectful of the president and the party.” The 55-year-old congressman has largely taken this hostility in stride and it doesn’t appear there’s any love lost. “Frankly, the disappointment is mutual,” he told Axios.
This fall from grace is surprising. As a moderate Democrat, Phillips was first elected to the House in 2018 after flipping a Republican-held seat in the Minneapolis suburbs and quickly became a beloved member of the Democratic caucus. Just last year, he was elected co-chair of the Democratic Policy and Communications Committee, which put him partly in charge of crafting the party’s messaging. But he has since resigned from that position after calling for a challenger to run against Biden, and arguing that the president is too old to run for another term.
Though Phillips continues to stay in the race, his chances of winning don’t look very encouraging. In South Carolina, he came in third with less than 2 percent of the vote behind author Marianne Williamson, who has since dropped out of the race.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom
California Gov. Gavin Newsom stirred some speculation that he’d make a 2024 bid early on in the Democratic primary. But once Biden made it clear that he was seeking a second term in April 2023, Newsom put those rumors to rest and began campaigning for the president.
Still, the 56-year-old Democrat has long been talked about as a future presidential candidate for his party. Even Republicans haven’t been able to ignore his potential — former two-term California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger told The Hollywood Reporter in 2023 that Newsom’s run would be inevitable: “I think it’s a no-brainer,” he said. “Every governor from a big state wants to take that shot.”
Newsom also has gained nationwide attention for standing his ground on progressive positions on issues like immigration and education while feuding with Republican counterpart Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. The two even went toe-to-toe in a debate moderated by Fox’s conservative host Sean Hannity, where Newsom largely used the time to defend Biden’s record.
But as he amped up his national profile, his popularity took a tumble among his own constituency. According to a UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll last November, 49 percent of Californians disapproved of his job performance.
Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer
Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has also been floated as a strong contender — and speculation has already started to build about a possible run. (As recently as last year, The Atlantic ran a piece entitled, “Why Not Whitmer?” exploring just that.)
Whitmer’s currently serving a second term for the top political job in the battleground state that was previously won by former President Trump in 2016. One of her main political assets is her broad appeal among voters for solving practical problems like infrastructure. For instance, one of her signature slogans during her first campaign in 2018 was “fix the damn roads,” which gained support from those on both sides of the aisle.
She’s also taken up other key Democratic issues, such as abortion rights. Last April, she repealed a 1931 state law banning abortion, and that same year, she also struck down insurance restrictions, among other reforms.
While some may disagree with her viewpoints, she’s seen as a sympathetic figure having been the target of a foiled kidnapping plot in 2020.
Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg
Before becoming transportation secretary, Pete Buttigieg became the first openly gay candidate to run for a Democratic presidential nomination in 2020. Buttigieg performed better than expected, even winning the Iowa caucuses.
Buttigieg’s widely expected to run for president again and possibly succeed Biden — whether that’s in 2024 or 2028. After all, he remains a popular figure within the party as the most requested surrogate by Democratic candidates during the 2022 midterm elections.
He also hasn’t ruled out the possibility himself. “I don’t know what’s going to happen in the future,” he told CNN in 2022. “I do know that I’ve been entrusted with this amazing opportunity and responsibility to help shape the infrastructure we’re going to be living with and working with and counting on for the rest of our lives.”
As with any candidate, Buttigieg has some weaknesses — and they’re pretty major ones. For instance, he faced a lot of heat for waiting almost three weeks to respond to a train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio, which he eventually acknowledged was a mistake. The transportation secretary has also struggled to connect with a key voting bloc for Democrats: He received zero percent support among Black voters in South Carolina at one point during his presidential campaign.
As you can see, there appears to be slim pickings when it comes to some of the other Democratic possibilities. This is why some could also fathom a campaign to recruit candidates outside of Washington, such as former first lady Michelle Obama, who has repeatedly expressed zero interest in running, or even actor Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, who said he has been approached by multiple political parties about making a bid.
Meanwhile, Democratic strategists like Hicks recommend keeping an eye on the Democratic National Convention, which will be held in Chicago from Aug. 19 to 22. He points out that it was the 2008 convention that put former President Obama on the map. “The convention this year is a real opportunity for Democrats to highlight diversity and strength, and to prepare the nation and voters for 2028.”
