Just days after two women came forward with sexual misconduct allegations, Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell announced he was suspending his gubernatorial campaign, before later saying he would step down from Congress — throwing California’s governor’s race into disarray.
His exit has reshuffled the Democratic field and raised a once far-fetched question — could Democrats lose the general election in one of the bluest states in the country?
That possibility carries outsized stakes. Home to the world’s fourth-largest economy, California punches far above its weight politically. The next governor will oversee a roughly $4 trillion market while shaping policies — from climate rules to labor protections — that often ripple far beyond the state.
Who is Eric Swalwell, and what are the accusations against him?
First elected in 2012, Swalwell built a national profile in Congress on security issues and as an outspoken critic of President Trump, even mounting a brief bid for president in 2020. Part of a younger generation of Democrats, he had been gaining traction and emerging as a frontrunner in California’s crowded governor’s race.
That all changed on Friday, when The San Francisco Chronicle and CNN published reports from at least four women accusing him of misconduct ranging from sexual harassment to rape.
In response, the House Ethics Committee opened an ethics inquiry, and some lawmakers began weighing expulsion. Swalwell, however, announced he would give up his congressional seat before any action could be taken.
The legal scrutiny is unlikely to end there: The Manhattan district attorney’s office is examining a claim that Swalwell assaulted a woman in New York City in 2024, while Los Angeles County authorities are also reviewing a separate allegation that he raped and drugged a woman in 2018.
As for Swalwell, he apologized to his wife and supporters for what he described as “mistakes in judgment,” while denying allegations of sexual abuse.
"I will fight the serious, false allegation made against me," he added. "However, I must take responsibility and ownership for the mistakes I did make."
How will this impact the California governor’s race?
Swalwell’s exit has left Democrats scrambling in an already muddled race.
With Gov. Gavin Newsom unable to run and big names like Vice President Kamala Harris sitting out, the field was already wide open. Before the allegations surfaced, Swalwell had emerged as a frontrunner. In a March 2026 Emerson College poll, he was leading the primary with about 17 percent support. A later average of polls in April showed him around 11–12 percent, still placing him among the top-tier candidates. Now, with no single candidate clearly leading the pack, the race remains highly fragmented — with several contenders clustered near the top.
Eric Schickler, a political scientist at the University of California, Berkeley, says the race had been shaping up as a likely face-off between Swalwell and leading Republican contender Steve Hilton. Now, with Swalwell gone, it’s unclear who can pick up his support.
“Democrats have a lot of candidates — none of whom stand out from the pack,” Schickler tells us. “It creates more of an opening for the number two and three Democrats and even some lower-polling candidates who had seemed pretty much shut out.” He adds that this could open the door for Katie Porter and Tom Steyer — along with lower-polling candidates like San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan.
But even some of the better-known contenders come with their own vulnerabilities. Porter, for instance, has faced scrutiny tied to past personal allegations raised in court filings her ex-husband, Matthew Hoffman — which she has disputed — as well as reports about her management style and tense interactions with staff, including a reported incident in which she sharply criticized a staffer during a recorded meeting.
The race may come down to which of these Democratic hopefuls can pull together support fastest. “At this point, one of those Democrats — especially Steyer or possibly Porter — is best positioned to consolidate enough support to advance,” says Christian Grose, a political scientist at the University of Southern California.
Could Democrats get shut out?
There’s a scenario in which two Republicans advance from the primary, locking Democrats out entirely — a risk tied to California’s unusual system, which sends the top two vote-getters forward regardless of party.
“Typically — though not always — parties coordinate around one or two candidates in a primary through endorsements and other signals,” Grose tells us. “But the large number of Democratic candidates in the 2026 governor’s race makes that much harder.”
California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks underscored that concern in an open letter earlier this month, urging long-shot candidates to drop out and warning that a two-Republican general election is “implausible” but “not impossible.”
The uncertainty appears to extend to the top of the party. According to CNN, people familiar with Newsom’s thinking say he is still trying to assess where the race stands in the wake of Swalwell’s exit, including whether it increases the chances of a worst-case scenario: two Republicans finishing in the top two in the June primary.
Schickler, however, says the odds remain low. He notes that in a typical election, roughly 60 percent of voters lean Democratic, compared to about 40 percent Republican — meaning a Republican sweep would likely require two strong GOP candidates splitting the vote evenly, while Democrats divide their support so broadly that no single candidate breaks into the mid-20s.
Some analysts say the shakeup could actually help Democrats avoid that outcome.
“Eric Swalwell’s departure from the race may turn out to benefit Democrats overall, because it narrows their field of candidates and reduces the chances that Democratic votes are split so broadly that no Democratic candidate advances in the top two toward November,” says Thad Kousser, a political science professor at the University of California, San Diego.
For now, the question is whether Democrats can coalesce in time to avoid an scenario that once seemed unthinkable.
