7 Senate Races That Could Decide Control of Congress

Democrats have a steep climb ahead if they want to take back the Senate this November.

The party only needs to pick up four seats to win control of the chamber, but there are relatively few places to find them. Of the 35 Senate races on the ballot this year, independent analysts consider only nine truly competitive — and many are in states President Trump won in 2024.

Still, the political environment has created some unexpected openings. In addition to the history that shows the president's party usually does poorly in the midterms, Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 33 percent, the lowest of his political career, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling. And races in states that have long seemed out of reach for Democrats — including Texas, Iowa, and Alaska — have become surprisingly competitive, while Republicans are eyeing opportunities of their own in places like Michigan.

With control of Congress's upper chamber potentially coming down to just a handful of contests, here are seven matchups we’ll be watching closely between now and Election Day.

Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed vs. Mike Rogers

Michigan’s open Senate seat is one Democrats can’t afford to lose, pitting progressive epidemiologist and former health official Abdul El-Sayed against Trump-endorsed former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers.

The race to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters will test El-Sayed’s anti-establishment appeal in a state Trump carried in 2024. El-Sayed is also facing scrutiny over his ties to controversial streamer Hasan Piker and deleted posts about 9/11 and its aftermath. But he’s found an unlikely defender in Tucker Carlson, who wrote Friday that El-Sayed was “obviously right” to question the U.S. response to the attacks and suggested it was Rogers who was “unfit to serve in public office.”

All of that is playing out in an exceptionally tight race. A Detroit News/WDIV-TV poll released on Sept. 8 found Rogers at 45.8 percent and El-Sayed at 44.4 percent — a difference well within the survey’s four-point margin of error.

North Carolina: Roy Cooper vs. Michael Whatley

North Carolina has seen its fair share of nail-biter elections in recent years, and its open Senate seat is once again drawing plenty of national attention. Former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is facing former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley for the seat being vacated by retiring Republican Sen. Thom Tillis.

Cooper brings an unusual advantage for a Democrat running in a state Trump carried three times: He already won four races as state attorney general and two more as governor in 2016 and 2020, even as Trump carried the state in those years. Whatley, meanwhile, has close ties to Trump after leading the RNC, and he's campaigning as an ally of the president, appearing at the GOP’s first-ever midterm convention in Dallas on Sept. 9.

One of the biggest issues in the race so far is the cost of living. Cooper has used Whatley’s own words against him, pointing to direct — albeit dated — comments in which Whatley said grocery, gas and housing prices were falling and inflation was down. Some of those claims, however, were more defensible at the time than Cooper’s attacks suggest. Whatley’s campaign, meanwhile, argues that policies Cooper supported as governor made life more expensive for North Carolinians.

So far, Cooper has the edge: An Elon University poll released in August found him leading Whatley 53 percent to 42 percent among likely voters. 

Maine: Susan Collins vs. Troy Jackson

GOP Sen. Susan Collins has spent three decades building a reputation as one of the Senate’s most durable moderates. First elected in 1996, the five-term Republican has repeatedly won in a state that consistently backs Democrats for president, in part by presenting herself as an independent voice willing to break with her party.

But this year, Collins faces former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson, a fifth-generation logger and longtime state lawmaker who became the Democratic nominee after Graham Platner dropped out of the race in July. Jackson has made his working-class background central to his campaign. 

Abortion could also prove to be a major issue in the race. Collins is facing voters for the first time since Roe v. Wade was overturned, drawing renewed attention to her 2018 vote to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh. Jackson has been open about his own evolution on abortion rights, writing in a recent op-ed for KCM that he changed his position after listening to women in his life and the people he represents. “Being a leader doesn’t mean you’ve never been wrong,” he wrote. “It means listening to the people you represent, having the humility to admit when you were wrong, and then using the power you have to do something about it.”

With just under two months to go until November, the race remains neck-and-neck. A CNN poll released on Sept. 9 puts Jackson at 48 percent and Collins at 45 percent among likely voters, a difference within the survey’s margin of error, leaving no clear leader.

Ohio: Jon Husted vs. Sherrod Brown

Ohio has backed Trump in three straight presidential elections, and in 2024, even longtime Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown couldn’t overcome the state’s rightward shift.

Now Brown is attempting a comeback against Trump-endorsed Republican Sen. Jon Husted, the former Ohio lieutenant governor and secretary of state who was appointed in 2025 to fill the seat JD Vance vacated when he became vice president. The winner of the special election will serve the remainder of Vance’s term, through January 2029.

Brown is once again running as a champion of working people, focusing on affordability and criticizing Trump’s tariffs. Husted, meanwhile, has aligned himself with the president’s agenda while arguing that voters already rejected Brown’s record. He is also facing questions about his connections to figures involved in Ohio’s massive nuclear-bailout bribery scandal, though Husted has never been charged with or accused of wrongdoing.

For now, Brown appears to be making the race competitive. The RealClearPolitics polling average has him narrowly ahead, 49 percent to 46 percent, in a state Trump carried by 11 points just two years ago.

Iowa: Ashley Hinson vs. Josh Turek

Iowa is another state that's voted for Trump in three straight presidential elections, so it’s fair to wonder how much of a chance Democrats have here. But GOP Sen. Joni Ernst’s retirement has created a rare opening for the left. 

Trump-endorsed Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson is facing Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek, a four-time Paralympian and wheelchair basketball gold medalist who calls himself a “prairie populist” — a label rooted in the Midwest’s tradition of working-class politics.

Turek is leaning on his experience winning in a Republican-leaning legislative district and has made healthcare a centerpiece of his campaign, criticizing Hinson’s vote for sweeping Medicaid cuts. Hinson has defended the changes as an effort to eliminate waste and abuse while casting Turek as out of step with the state. 

A recent Suffolk University poll found Hinson leading 45 percent to 41 percent, though the gap was within the poll’s margin of error — meaning the candidates could effectively be tied. The race will test whether Turek’s working-class message can overcome Iowa’s rightward shift.

Texas: Ken Paxton vs. James Talarico

Texas hasn’t elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in nearly 40 years — that was in 1988, to be exact — though Democrat Bob Krueger briefly held the seat after being appointed in 1993.

But this year’s race between Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico has emerged as an unexpectedly competitive contest. The RealClearPolitics polling average currently has Talarico leading Paxton 47 percent to 45 percent.

Paxton enters the general election with Trump’s backing, but also with years of political controversy behind him, including his 2023 impeachment by the Texas House over allegations of bribery and abuse of office, followed by his acquittal in the state Senate. Talarico, meanwhile, has built an unusually large fundraising operation and sought to win over independents and disaffected Republicans. But his opponents are seizing on some of his past comments about gender and religion to portray him as too progressive for Texas — attacks that could complicate his crossover appeal.

The stakes have prompted outside groups to pour money into the race: Trump-aligned MAGA Inc. recently committed at least $10 million to supporting Paxton, while Talarico has raised nearly $70 million from donors both big and small.

Alaska: Dan Sullivan vs. Mary Peltola

Alaska has long leaned Republican in presidential elections, with Trump carrying the state by about 10 points in 2020 and 13 points in 2024. But voters have shown a willingness to cross party lines: In 2022, they elected Democrat Mary Peltola to the House while simultaneously reelecting Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski and Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy.

Now, Peltola is trying to unseat two-term Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan. The former congresswoman, who became the first Alaska Native elected to Congress, has already proven she can win statewide. She also finished ahead of Sullivan in Alaska’s nonpartisan Senate primary in August, taking about 48 percent of the vote to his 43 percent. Polling suggests the general election could be close, too: The RealClearPolitics average currently gives Peltola a two-point edge, 49 percent to 47 percent.

Then there’s an unusual wildcard: Sullivan will share the November ballot with another GOP candidate who's also named Dan Sullivan. The second Sullivan, a retired teacher, advanced through the primary despite efforts to remove him from the ballot amid concerns that his candidacy could throw Alaskans for a loop. The Justice Department is investigating whether his candidacy was intended to confuse voters and divert votes from the incumbent. (For his part, the other Sullivan says he’s not trying to mislead anyone.)

The unusual situation could add another wrinkle under Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system, in which voters rank candidates by preference and additional rounds of counting are held if no candidate initially wins a majority.