Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema announced her decision to become an independent.
An Arizona lawmaker’s decision to switch political affiliations is causing some major uncertainty about the future of the Democratic Party. On Friday, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema announced that she was leaving the Democratic Party to register as an independent.
“I’ve never fit neatly into any party box. I’ve never really tried. I don’t want to,” Sinema said during her announcement.
While Sinema’s new label won’t affect the Senate’s power balance, it could potentially endanger Democrats’ chances of holding onto the seat in 2024. But the move also didn’t come at a surprise to Democrats. Sinema, who made history as the first openly bisexual senator, has always voted in an independent way, even if it meant getting censored by the party in January for refusing to get rid of the legislative filibuster to advance voting rights legislation.
Naturally, you’re probably wondering what the move means for Democratic control and the party’s agenda, so here’s what we know so far, including why it’s such a big deal.
Why it matters
Though party swaps have been happening since the early days of the two-party system, the Senate hasn’t seen a shake-up like this in over a decade. The last party defection happened 13 years ago, when former Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter left the GOP to become a Democrat. But it has been even longer since former Sen. Joe Lieberman switched from Democrat to independent in 2006.
But this is probably not going to be the last time such a transition is made: West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin, who has also been a wild card for Democrats, has repeatedly shot down rumors that he’s leaving the Democratic Party.
What it means for the Senate
The Democratic Party will still be narrowly in charge of the Senate, thanks in large part to Raphael Warnock’s win last week in the highly contentious Georgia runoff against Republican challenger Herschel Walker. But it’s unclear by exactly how much: Democrats will have a 51-49 majority with Sinema and a 50-49 balance without her, according to the AP.
Sinema’s switch likely won’t affect the upper chamber’s day-to-day operations. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said Sinema intends to keep her Democratic committee assignments and will continue to caucus with Democrats.
“We will maintain our new majority on committees, exercise our subpoena power and be able to clear nominees without discharge votes,” Schumer said in a statement.
What it means for Democrats’ goals
Similarly, Sinema’s switch-up is unlikely to have an immediate impact. Sinema has already stated that she doesn’t plan to change how she votes (for the record, she has voted with President Biden over 90 percent of the time, according to a FiveThirtyEight analysis).
The long-term impact could be a different story, though. Sinema’s departure sets up a potentially heated contest in Arizona in 2024, which has become a swing state in recent years. Democrats worry that if Sinema runs as an independent in the state, it could give Republicans an edge. On top of this, Democrats already face a number of uphill battles in red and purple states across the country, including in Ohio and West Virginia.
So far, Sinema has refused to say whether she’ll be running for reelection, emphasizing, “politics and elections will come later.” But she’s facing some fierce criticism from members within the party, who have accused her of making the change for political gain. Some are saying she might have a better chance of winning not running as a Democrat.
“I think it really has to do with her political aspirations for the future in Arizona, but for us, I think, nothing much has changed in terms of the functioning of the U.S. Senate,” Sen. Bernie Sanders told CNN’s “State of the Union.”
