Ted Cruz is convinced she’ll usurp Joe Biden. But what has the former first lady said?
With less than one year until the 2024 presidential election, the prospective Biden vs. Trump rematch that everyone is apparently already sick of is looking more and more likely to become a reality. But could there be a surprise entry into the race who really shakes things up?
According to some high-profile Republicans, the answer is yes — and the person they expect to launch a last-minute campaign is none other than Michelle Obama. Stories about the former first lady’s rumored presidential ambitions have been floated for years, but could 2024 be the moment when her run actually happens? Let’s take a closer look at these claims and what Obama herself has said on the topic.
Who says Michelle Obama will run in 2024?
The latest iteration of this suggestion comes from Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. He’s spoken about this before, but the most recent example came in response to posts on X from David Axelrod, the influential Democratic strategist who became famous as one of Barack Obama’s close advisers. After an attention-grabbing new poll found Donald Trump leading Joe Biden in a handful of key swing states, Axelrod wrote that the data “will send tremors of doubt” through the Democratic Party about whether Biden can win a second term.
In a conversation on Fox & Friends the next day, Cruz called Axelrod’s comments “very serious.” He suggested that Barack Obama is “the person pulling the strings behind Joe Biden,” and that because Axelrod is “Obama’s right hand,” his posts offer a window into backroom strategizing within the Democratic Party about what will really happen leading up to the general election.
“I predicted that there was a very real chance the Democrats would jettison Joe Biden and parachute in Michelle Obama, and that they’d do it at the convention next summer. I think the chances of that are rising every day,” Cruz said.
As Cruz pointed out on Fox, he’s made these claims before: In a September episode of his podcast, he said Michelle Obama could be a last-minute “savior” candidate for Democrats, a possibility he described as “very, very dangerous.”
But Cruz isn’t the only Republican who subscribes to this way of thinking. In September, former vice-presidential contender Sarah Palin made the prediction of the former FLOTUS replacing Biden on the Democratic ticket. (It’s worth noting that her forecast was posted in response a lengthy conspiracy theory — which she seemed to tacitly endorse — suggesting that Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom might conspire to remove Biden from office entirely.) And back in May, Fox News commentator Rachel Campos-Duffy said “the Obamas are pretty much running this administration” and insisted Michelle would be “brought in” to replace Biden.
There’s also been plenty of speculation in the media about how the former first lady would change the race, with op-eds from The Wall Street Journal and The Hill exploring the possibility — and reports from admittedly dubious sources like Radar Online, which claimed Democratic insiders are “begging” her to enter the fray.
What has Michelle Obama said about running for president?
Despite all the chatter about her alleged aspirations to move back into the White House, Obama has made it crystal-clear that she has no intention whatsoever of getting onto the Democratic ticket — or any ticket, for that matter.
In 2018, amid speculation that she might run in 2020, Obama said she “never had the passion for politics” that her husband did, and added that she’s not interested in being commander-in-chief. “The reason why I don’t want to run for president … my sense is that, first of all, you have to want the job,” she said.
In November 2022, she told the BBC’s Naga Munchetty that “Are you going to run for president?” is the question she most detests being asked. And just for good measure, she did give her answer: “No. I’m not going to run.”
She was asked about this yet again earlier in 2023, when she was interviewed by Oprah Winfrey during her book tour for The Light We Carry, and she offered another “resounding no” to the familiar query.
So why hasn’t the speculation stopped?
On one hand, Obama would be a dream candidate for many Democrats. She’s a broadly popular cultural figure whose post-White House life has included publishing two best-selling books and live events that sell out arenas around the country. Polling over the summer found that if Obama did become a contender for the Democratic nomination, she would boast a double-digit lead over Joe Biden. And at 59, she would also assuage voters who fear the effects of 80-year-old Biden’s age, which David Axelrod described as the president’s “biggest liability.”
But her identity also plays into familiar narratives on the other side of the aisle. Ted Cruz’s most recent comments didn’t just insinuate a grand conspiracy of the Obamas’ shadowy influence over Biden; he also used Michelle’s race to support his point.
“The reason I say Michelle Obama is, if Biden gets out of the way, next is Kamala Harris, and she’s a very flawed candidate. They know that,” Cruz said. “In the Democrat Party, they can’t push Kamala Harris aside and replace her with a white guy. They can’t drop Gavin Newsom in over an African-American woman and not have their party lose its mind.”
To point to another example: In May, USA Today fact-checked yet another claim about a possible Obama candidacy — which was spreading online partly due to a popular Instagram post in which a woman suggested Obama hoped to become “the first trans woman as president.” The claim that Obama was originally born a man has been so pervasive that PolitiFact has issued multiple fact-checks totally disproving it, but it’s a familiar enough dog whistle that it can be an effective tactic in attempting to convince under-informed voters that she (and the Democratic Party at large) has something to hide.
At this point, whether Joe Biden can win in 2024 is a major question — and whether a nascent Democratic challenger with little name recognition, like Dean Phillips, has the power to gain any ground is another one. Surprises are unavoidable in politics, but all the evidence points to the fact that Michelle Obama won’t be jumping in to complicate matters further — no matter how often that’s floated as a possibility.
