The midterm results seem to call Trump’s kingmaker status into question.
Former President Trump’s presence loomed large during the midterm elections, but some of the candidates he backed ended up underperforming in races across the country. Now, this is raising some questions about whether he still has the momentum to carry him through another run for the White House in 2024 — and what that means for the GOP as a whole.
For example: In Michigan, Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer won reelection against Republican challenger Tudor Dixon. Though President Biden won the state in 2020, this nonetheless marks a devastating loss for Republicans, because Michigan played a key role in Trump’s surprise victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016.
That wasn’t the GOP’s only disappointment during this midterm cycle. Another was Trump-backed contender Mehmet Oz, who was defeated by Democrat Lt. Gov. John Fetterman in the Pennsylvania Senate race.
“In this climate, we should have done better,” Rob Jesmer, a former head of the Republicans’ Senate campaign arm, told Reuters.
But Democrats had their fair share of embarrassments too: New York Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, the chairman of the committee charged with reelecting House Democrats, lost his own race, and Republicans are still favored to win control of Congress’s lower chamber. We’re taking a closer look at what the outcome of this year’s campaigns tells us about the future.
What do the midterm results tell us about Donald Trump?
The battle for control of the House and Senate is still up in the air as several key races remain tight, but as the dust settles, it doesn’t look like the Republican blowout some expected. In reality, the GOP has made modest gains so far, with Trump still playing the party’s kingmaker. While a slate of his endorsed candidates prevailed (like Ohio’s newly-elected Senator J.D. Vance), there were several notable losses, including gubernatorial candidates Dan Cox in Maryland and Doug Mastriano in the Pennsylvania.
Other races were just too close to call: The Senate race in Georgia is headed for a runoff on Dec. 6 after neither Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock nor Republican challenger Herschel Walker surpassed the 50 percent threshold to win the race outright on Tuesday.
“Definitely not a Republican wave, that’s for darn sure,” Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham told NBC, while predicting a narrow win for the GOP in the Senate.
But if anything is clear as the final results are tabulated, it’s that Trump didn’t get the victorious night he was hoping for. “Interesting evening,” he told reporters while reacting to Tuesday night’s results from a lavish party at Mar-a-Lago in Florida.
What does the outcome mean for Joe Biden?
Even though Republicans could still win control of Congress, President Biden and Democrats did better than expected in the midterms, upending historical trends. To put this into context, the party that holds the White House typically faces major midterm election losses — but not this time around. Though the Democrats appear to have lost some House seats, White House officials have pointed out that the numbers are relatively low as compared to midterms under previous presidents. Much of this success is being attributed to young voters, particularly those part of “Gen Z” (the cohort of Americans born between the mid and late 1990s).
“It’s the most successful midterm for a Democratic president probably in history and certainly since the Second World War,” Yale professor Jeffrey Sonnenfeld told CNBC.
This history-defying performance even caught the White House by surprise. In the days leading up to the midterms, Democrats had been bracing for some serious losses, especially after Biden’s public approval rating dipped to 39 percent in a Reuters/Ipsos poll and concerns about the economy weighed heavily on voters’ minds.
“It was a good day for America,” Biden said on Wednesday. “Our democracy has been tested in recent years, but with their votes, the American people have spoken and proven once again that democracy is who we are.”
But it’s not over yet
Despite his party’s lackluster performance, Trump insists that the midterms marked “a very big victory” for Republicans and doesn’t appear to be changing his mind about making another presidential bid. After months of hyping it up, the former president has hinted that he’ll finally make a “big announcement” on Tuesday, Nov. 15.
“We had tremendous success…. Why would anything change?” Trump said in an interview with Fox News Digital on Wednesday.
But some Republicans are urging him to wait and make his announcement after the runoff in Georgia. “Every Republican energy needs to go to grinding the Biden agenda to a halt, and that could go straight through the state of Georgia,” his former press secretary Kayleigh McEnany said.
Once his decision is official, it’s still not a guarantee that he’ll ultimately secure the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. Gov. Ron DeSantis, who’s eyeing a White House bid, could give Trump a run for his money after overwhelmingly winning reelection in Florida. This potential rivalry hasn’t gone unnoticed by the former president, who has referred to the Florida Republican as “Ron DeSanctimonious.”
