Some see a narrow path to victory.
The question of whether Democrats will hold onto their slim majority in the House this fall seems to be the million-dollar one. While the party’s chances haven’t looked very favorable over the last few months, the tides could be turning in the Dems’ favor, amid a once-unthinkable mood shift across the country.
As they face a toss-up in the Senate, a series of special election wins and encouraging economic signs have buoyed Democratic hopes. Plus, some improvements on President Biden’s lackluster approval rating, which currently sits at 45 percent, are also boosting optimism.
Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin, who faces an uphill House race, is even going so far as to say that she sees a “narrow” path to keeping the majority. “I definitely feel a different energy than even three months ago,” she told The Washington Post.
Here’s a breakdown of where Democrats stand now and which issues could make or break the party at large.
Where does the House stand now?
The battle for control of the House hangs in the balance: Democrats currently hold a slim majority of 220 seats, compared to Republicans’ 211. Come November, the party will need to hold onto five seats to keep an edge over Republicans, and if history is anything to go by, the president’s party doesn’t tend to fare well in the first midterm.
Though Republicans are going in with an advantage, political analysts are taking note of an emerging political shift. Just last week, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report reduced its projections for GOP gains in the House. The group is now predicting that Republicans will pick up 10 to 20 instead of 20 to 35 seats, with editor Dave Wasserman projecting that it’s “not out of the question” for Democrats to maintain control of the lower chamber. Similarly, CBS News’ battleground tracker now estimates that Republicans will gain 226 seats, down from 230 in July.
Do Democrats have a path to victory in the House?
Democrats have boasted a stronger-than-anticipated turnout in special elections, following the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. Kansas was a prime example, where voters shot down anti-abortion legislation to protect reproductive rights.
So far, Democratic candidates have outperformed President Biden’s 2020 margins in four special elections. This includes Democrat Pat Ryan’s victory in New York, where he beat Republican Marc Molinaro after vowing to protect access to abortion.
Beyond abortion, Democratic strategists point to another major issue at stake: the drop in gas prices. For the first time since March, the nationwide average price for a gallon of gas dropped below $4 per gallon. Inflation, which has also been skyrocketing, appears to be easing up, according to one popular measure. The Consumer Price Index showed that July’s consumer price index dropped from 9.1 percent to 8.5 percent. These economic improvements are being mirrored in Biden’s rising approval ratings. A CBS News poll released Sunday showed that it has ticked up by 6 points since July, marking its highest level since February.
What are some other key indicators?
Democratic fundraisers have seen an increase in donations over the last month, according to The Washington Post. Meanwhile, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has poured another $24 million into TV ads this fall, showing there’s still hope for House Democrats. While significant portions are going toward flipping GOP seats in California and Michigan, most of the money will be aimed at existing Democrat seats.
“Certainly everything is moving in the right direction, and there is room for it to move more,” Democratic lobbyist Steve Elmendorf told The Washington Post.
