The news is unbearable, but look out for these possible side effects.
It’s hard not to recoil at the images now coming out of Ukraine in real time on a daily basis. The deliberate targeting of lethal force against civilians — including infants, expectant mothers, the disabled, and the elderly — is more than most can bear. Not since the ethnic cleansing of the Kosovo conflict has Europe seen evil on this scale, live and in color.
While the conflict may be far from over, a part of me has been wondering, might any positives emerge from this disaster?
I think it’s possible.
If you tuned into the State of the Union, you might have noticed that Biden’s comments on Ukraine were met by unanimous applause from both sides of the aisle. It may not last, but we haven’t seen anything but tribal politics since the 2015 primary season. For the first time in years, Americans across the political spectrum are united in our desire to see the Ukrainians prevail against an unprovoked invader. That’s the first positive. I think there are at least four others — and as I articulate them, I don’t mean to give the impression the war is over or that supporting Ukraine shouldn’t be a daily priority, because it should be. However, here are my hopes.
The end of Putin
The warming weather, his army’s flagging morale, and the deafening rallying cry of support for Ukraine all mean Putin can’t “win” this war. He may well cause horrific damage in a desperate bid to reduce to ashes the cities he can’t gain control over, but time is not on his side (and neither is the civilized world). Next week Russia will begin defaulting on its sovereign debt. I know everyone is coo-coo for Crypto Puffs right now, but I assure you, you cannot cyber-launder $1 trillion worth of GDP (particularly using a system that is premised on every single transaction being recorded in a public ledger). Putin may crank up the propaganda machine as Russian TV is reduced to Channel One, but the last Russian athlete has competed in an international event. Even the brainwashed will start putting two and two together. This is how dictators fall: They miscalculate (in this case, badly) and are hoisted by their own petard.
NATO gains new purpose (or a purpose at all)
Ukraine has been begging for assistance for years. Obama put them off, then Trump tried to extract political favors before releasing promised aid. But the Ukrainians knew what was lurking in the shadows, even if most Americans are only now taking notice. NATO members have been eating at the club, but not paying their dues. The annual get-togethers prior to this conflict have been a bit of a yawner’s agenda. But now there is urgency — and, well, there should be. The entire security architecture of Europe needs to be re-thought, particularly if the phrase “never again” is to have any meaning.
Ukrainian victory will slow the Chinese roll against Taiwan
This is the scarecrow effect. Strongmen everywhere will rethink territory grabs. It won’t deter every despot or mitigate every risk across the quadrants, but directionally this has to be seen as a good thing (in the short term).
By embracing Putin, Trump may have gone too far for his loyal supporters
Even now, this is as close to Trump choking on vomit as we will get to see. No one gave Putin a bigger bear hug than Trump. But, lay down with dogs, wake up with fleas. Putin went full Hitler on February 24 (in comparison to the invasion of Poland, not the Holocaust itself). Trump’s adoration of an unhinged autocrat is simply too deep and too wide to walk back. Notice he’s been rather quiet? That’s the sound of choking on vomit. Though it won’t alleviate any of the suffering of innocent Ukrainians or restore their democracy, I think the power in the Republican party will at last shift away from his bootlickers.
David Molner is the managing director of Screen Capital International, a specialist financier in media, entertainment and sport. He has a background in European languages, has traveled extensively in Eastern Europe, and bought, sold, and distributed motion pictures in Russia for several years. He lives in New York with his four children.
