- Democrats hold a modest edge in congressional preference and are more enthusiastic, with 43% to 37% among registered voters.
- The economy is voters' top concern, especially affordability, yet trust is nearly split: 37% Democrats, 36% Republicans.
- Donald Trump remains central: 42% see their vote as against him, 22% as for him, influencing both parties.
- Many voters remain undecided and issue loyalties are shifting, meaning the midterm outcome is still very much in play.
We're less than 100 days from the midterm elections (but who's counting?), and we now have our first real snapshot of the 2026 political landscape.
A new poll from Pew Research Center suggests that Democrats are heading into the fall with a modest advantage, but it also paints a more nuanced picture of the race ahead. The economy has emerged as voters' top concern, yet Republicans no longer hold the clear lead on the issue that they once did. With many voters still open to persuasion, both parties have lots left to fight over.
Oh, and President Trump? He's still a major factor, even for those who say they're voting against him. Here's a closer look at where the race stands — for now.
What the Pew poll shows ahead of the 2026 midterms
Democrats hold a modest edge in the race for control of Congress, according to the new Pew survey. Among registered voters, 43 percent say they would support the Democratic candidate in their congressional district if the election were held today, compared with 37 percent who would back the Republican candidate. Another 20 percent say they're undecided or would support another candidate, highlighting that there's still plenty of room for the race to shift before November.
The Democratic advantage isn't just showing up in the ballot test — it's also evident in voter enthusiasm. Democrats are more likely to say they've been paying close attention to the election, with 39 percent saying they've thought "a lot" about the midterms, versus 22 percent of Republicans. (That's a notable reversal from this point in the 2022 midterm cycle, when Republicans held the edge on both measures.) And seven in 10 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say it "really matters" which party controls Congress.
At the same time, the survey points to familiar demographic divides: Republicans continue to lead among white voters, while Democrats maintain broader support among Black, Hispanic, and Asian voters.
Which issues are driving voters for the 2026 midterms?
No issue comes close to the economy. In fact, it's the top concern heading into the midterms, with affordability and the cost of living far outweighing every other issue voters want candidates to address.
Nearly three in 10 registered voters — 29 percent — say the economy is the issue they most want congressional candidates to talk about. That’s roughly double the share mentioning immigration (7 percent), healthcare (5 percent), foreign policy (4 percent), or even Trump (4 percent). Within that 29 percent, cost of living/affordability (15 percent) is the single biggest concern.
But while voters overwhelmingly agree on the problem, they're far less certain about which party has the better solution.
Democrats have essentially erased the GOP's long-standing advantage on economic issues. Today, Americans are almost evenly split on which party they trust more to handle the economy: 37 percent side with Democrats, while 36 percent side with Republicans.
Before Trump's second term, Republicans generally held a clearer edge on the issue, making this one of the report's most notable political shifts. Pew says the narrowing gap continues a trend that has unfolded during Trump's presidency. That's a significant development, considering that Republicans have traditionally enjoyed an upper hand with voters on economic issues.
The report also suggests the traditional political playbook may be shifting more broadly. Democrats continue to hold clear advantages on issues like healthcare, climate, and abortion, while Republicans maintain an edge on crime and immigration. But on several issues Republicans have historically dominated — such as the economy, the budget deficit, and foreign policy, as well as the use of military force — voters are now essentially split between the two parties. These findings suggest that fewer voters are automatically siding with one party on key issues than they have in the past.
And the one issue where neither party appears to have broken through? Artificial intelligence. A majority of Americans (51 percent) say they don't agree with either party's approach to AI policy, suggesting voters don't yet see a clear leader on one of the fastest-growing policy debates.
Trump looms large in the race
Even as voters say the economy is their top priority, Trump remains central to how many Americans view the upcoming election.
More registered voters say they see their congressional vote as a vote against the president (42 percent) than for him (22 percent), while 35 percent say he isn't much of a factor in their decision.
The dynamic is striking even within the Republican coalition: Half of Republican and Republican-leaning voters say Trump isn't a major factor in how they'll vote, while 44 percent say they think of their vote as one for Trump.
Taken together, the survey paints a more competitive political landscape than some of the traditional partisan narratives suggest. While Democrats currently hold a modest edge in both congressional preference and voter enthusiasm, the issue dominating the campaign — the economy — is one neither party clearly owns. With a sizable share of voters still undecided, both parties still have time to shape the conversation before voters head to the polls in November.
