Vice President Kamala Harris has been gaining ground among voters ever since she entered the presidential race, and pollsters are taking notice. 

On Tuesday, political modeling wizard Nate Silver released an updated election forecast, and he has Kamala Harris as a slight favorite over Donald Trump. In fact, according to his predictions, the presumptive Democratic nominee is leading nationally with 46.8 percent support, compared to the former president’s 43.7 percent. 

In an interview with Katie Couric, Silver emphasized that Harris has not only won back support that President Biden lost but also gained ground in key battleground states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. 

“We had Joe Biden behind by about four points in national polls when he exited the race, and four points is a loss,” he told Katie. “Democrats don’t usually lose a popular vote. Biden won it by four and a half points last time, so there had been an 8 to 9-point swing net. With Harris, she has gotten most of that back and performed more like a typical Democrat. Now, she’s about two and a half or three points ahead in national polls. She’s maybe a point or two ahead in some polls. More importantly, in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania.”

But Silver hedged on whether Harris could sustain her momentum amid an especially unpredictable election cycle. In July alone, Donald Trump faced an assassination attempt, and President Biden suspended his embattled campaign following a disastrous debate performance. “We’ve seen big polling misses in the past, and there are other big events coming,” he added, pointing to the upcoming debate between Harris and Trump on Sept. 10. 

There are also lingering questions about the accuracy of political polls, especially after the 2016 and 2020 elections. But Silver says polling has improved significantly since then, which he attributes to diversifying methods, including reaching people online and via text.

“It’s not that the polling is always perfect; it’s often pretty wrong,” he says. “But it [provides] a reality check [so you’re] not getting caught up in your own small island of a world.”

Even though he doesn’t have a crystal ball, Silver knows a thing or two about polling. He correctly nailed the result of every single state in the 2012 presidential election. The pollster has had some misses, too — for instance, he failed to predict Trump’s victory in 2016, as did nearly every public polling firm. (He had Hillary Clinton favored to win at 71.4 percent and Trump behind at 28.6 percent.)

But before dipping his toe into the political waters, you might be surprised to learn that he was a poker player. He has since returned to this passion, at least in part, to write his book On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything. The book is a definitive guide to risk, applying the frameworks of the gambler to everything from politics and A.I. to venture capital.

“There’re a lot of lessons in the book that are good life lessons in general,” he tells Katie. “Studies show that people are generally happier when they make a change and think more in terms of risk and reward.”