Including our own.
Donald Trump made history last month as the first former president to be convicted of felony crimes following his hush money trial. In the weeks that followed, many Republican lawmakers denounced the verdict, while Democrats cited it as even more evidence that Trump was unfit for office.
But the real question is, what do voters think? After all, even just a small shift among the electorate could determine the outcome of what’s expected to be another close election, and you might be surprised by what voters are saying about the former president’s conviction.
We examined the results of several surveys and conducted one of our own to better understand how voters are reacting to the historic news.
How did Americans react to Trump’s conviction immediately following the verdict?
More than half of the country agreed with Trump’s guilty verdict in the immediate aftermath. According to a CBS poll released on June 2, 57 percent of adults thought the New York jury reached the right verdict, and 56 percent believed it was a fair trial. Katie Couric Media’s own survey of Wake-Up Call readers conducted in the immediate aftermath found a much stronger sentiment: 95 percent agreed that the former president should be found guilty on every single one of his counts.
These views splintered along partisan lines — according to the same CBS findings, 96 percent of Democrats believe that Trump received a fair trial, compared to just 14 percent of Republicans who said the same. Independents were more split on the matter, with 54 percent saying the president was treated fairly and 46 percent saying the opposite.
Despite these differences, a majority (53 percent) of Americans said in a Reuters/Ipsos poll that they don’t think Trump should go to jail over the hush money case, while 46 percent said he should serve time behind bars.
In terms of its impact, our readers think the trial will be consequential in November — 57.5 percent believe it will affect the election’s outcome, compared to 42.5 percent who don’t think it will.
What about in the weeks since the decision?
It’s still too soon to tell whether Trump’s conviction will ultimately impact his polling standings, but it seems unlikely so far.
According to a June 6 survey from Emerson College, the former president’s nationwide support has held steady at 46 percent, even though his lead over President Joe Biden dropped from 3 points to 1 point. An election forecast model launched last week even gave Trump a 2 in 3 chance of beating Biden and winning the election.
Still, our own readers think the trial will be consequential in November — 57.5 percent believe it will affect the election’s outcome, compared to 42.5 percent who don’t think it will.
There are also other small but notable shifts in public opinion that could spell trouble for Trump’s campaign. Almost 1 in 5 Republicans in three battleground states — Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — said in a Florida Atlantic University PolCom Lab/Mainstreet Research poll released on June 4 that they believed Trump was guilty in the hush money trial. And a sizable number of independents (21 percent) said in a Politico/Ipsos poll published Monday they are less likely to back the former president due to his conviction, adding that his guilty verdict is an important factor in how they will vote in November. It’s worth noting that same poll showed a silver lining for Trump: Less than half (46 percent) said the outcome of the trial was fair, compared to 32 percent who disagreed and 19 percent who said they didn’t know.
Meanwhile, Democrats remain hopeful that the conviction will give them an edge. “I think the prevailing view is it is an extremely close election and the conviction, while not a game changer, helps on the margins with a small group of voters,” Democratic donor Steve Elmendorf told The Hill.
