An expert weighs in.
Israel just narrowly averted a major disaster after it thwarted a massive aerial attack from Iran — and it was a team effort. Late Saturday, American forces and other allies, including the U.K. and France, helped Israel successfully repel hundreds of drones and missiles.
Iranian state media said its attack was in response to a deadly Israeli strike on one of its compounds in Syria earlier this month. While the two countries have been at odds for decades, this marks the first time Iran has directly attacked Israel from Iranian territory — but it didn’t come as a surprise. Iranian Foreign Minister Amir Abdollahian said Tehran had informed the U.S. and other regional neighbors before the air raids in a move that experts say was aimed at deterring a larger war.
“Iran does not want a hot war with the United States or with Israel, that’s pretty clear,” Stephen Biddle, a professor at Columbia University School of International and Public Affairs, tells Katie Couric Media. “But Israel is of kind of two minds about this — there are some voices in Israel that think there’s inevitably going to be a war with Iran sooner or later.”
In response to Iran’s bombardment, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu posted on X: “We intercepted, we repelled, together we shall win.” As the Israeli leaders weigh next steps, here’s what the attacks mean and how the U.S. could respond.
What happened during the attack?
Iran launched more than 300 drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles against Israel — and around 99 percent of the projectiles were intercepted, according to IDF spokesperson Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari.
Israel protected itself by using two of its primary defensive weapons systems, the Iron Dome and the Arrow 3. There was also a coalition of countries helping to intercept these projectiles — the U.S. military helped Israel take down “nearly all” of the drones. Meanwhile, Britain’s Royal Air Force shot down “a number of Iranian attack drones,” while France offered some technological support. Israel’s neighboring countries even got involved: Jordan said that its military intercepted some projectiles that entered its airspace, though its cabinet said the move was done to protect Jordan’s own population.
Why did Iran attack Israel?
The assault was in response to an Israeli strike on April 1 against an Iranian consular building in Damascus, Syria, which killed several of Iran’s top brass, including senior commander Mohammad Reza Zahedi and Brig. Gen. Mohammad Hadi Haj Rahimi.
While Israel didn’t claim or deny responsibility for the consulate attack, the country was widely believed to be behind it. That could have to do with the fact that Israel and Iran have been locked in a years-long “shadow war,” or attacking each other’s interests on land, sea, air, and in cyberspace. As Biddle points out, Iran has supported proxy forces throughout the Middle East, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in the West Bank and Gaza, and the Houthis in Yemen.
“The whole point of proxies is to provide some distance and some form of deniability to what happens — presumably direct retaliatory effort against the proxy and not against Iran,” he tells us. “Working through a third party allows Iran to more carefully kind of moderate escalatory pressures.”
In turn, Israel has launched a series of attacks, including the assassination of Islamic Revolutionary Guards commander Col. Sayad Khodayee in 2022.
But the April attack stood out — both because of the location at a diplomatic compound, which is traditionally off-limits when it comes to hostilities, and the seniority of those killed.
In the following days, Iran publicly pledged to retaliate against Israel, putting the region at large on edge. Both the U.S. and Israel warned of intelligence that an Iranian attack was due any day.
Were there casualties in Iran’s attack on Israel?
Thankfully, no one was killed in Iran’s attack. But some were hospitalized with injuries, including a 7-year-old Arab girl, who was wounded by falling debris.
There were some structural damages, though. Hagari said in a televised address that the projectile caused “minor damage” to an air force base in Southern Israel, but he added that the base remains in operation.
What do we know about Israel’s response to the Iranian attack?
Iran’s mission to the United Nations said Saturday that the attack on Israel “can be deemed concluded” but warned its response would be “considerably more severe” if Israel makes any retaliatory moves.
Now, all eyes are on Israel as it weighs its response — and it remains very much up in the air. The country’s war cabinet wrapped up its meeting on Sunday without making a formal decision on how to proceed, though member Benny Gantz said, Israel would, “exact a price from Iran in a way and time that suits us.” While the conflict could stop here, Biddle worries that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might face pressure to act from hardliners inside his regime.
“If Israel just stops and doesn’t retaliate further, this will more or less blow over,” says Biddle. “The problem is, right-wingers in the Israeli government are going to want Netanyahu to act, so a lot rests on what he does next.”
How has the U.S. responded?
President Biden vowed “ironclad” support of Israel following Saturday’s attack. Then House Speaker Mike Johnson said the next day that he plans to advance Israel aid this week, though it’s not clear what type of bill this will be. The Senate previously passed a $95 billion foreign aid package but it remains in limbo because Republicans objected to its additional funding for Ukraine.
But the White House doesn’t want a wider war. Even if Israel launches a counterattack, Biden has already made it clear that the U.S. won’t support it and has urged Netanyahu to avoid escalating the already tense situation any further. “You got a win. Take the win,” Biden told Netanyahu, according to Axios. Similarly, the Secretary-General of the United Nations (which held an emergency meeting of the Security Council on Sunday in response to Iran’s attack) urged “maximum restraint.”
Whatever Israel decides could have a major impact on the Middle East and potentially threaten even more volatility in the region.
