Katie spoke with professional pollster Tresa Undem about the mood of the country.
The midterm elections are just six weeks away, and there’s a lot at stake. Voters will head to the polls with issues such as reproductive rights, inflation, LGBTQ+ rights, and immigration top of mind. And as much as we may want to know the outcome already, this year’s elections feel particularly too close to call, although there are projections about some of the key races. While polling is often used to predict election winners, in reality, we don’t know what’s going to happen when people actually head to cast their ballots (2016 is a famous example of the gap between polling and reality). So it can help to get an expert’s perspective on all the figures, rumors, and forecasts, which is why Katie spoke with Tresa Undem, co-founder and partner at Perry Undem, a nonpartisan public opinion research firm that works on a number of policy issues, including healthcare and gender equity.
Undem has done public opinion research for 20 years for nonprofits, foundations, news organizations, and government agencies. She also leads Perry Undem’s practice on attitudes and experiences related to gender equity and is known for posing the questions nobody else asks, so we decided to tap her expertise to shine some light on what we might expect come November 8.
Katie Couric: Give us the scoop on how things are looking six weeks from the midterm. What are people thinking?
Tresa Undem: Whenever we’re in a midterm election, the party that’s not in the White House tends to do really well. They tend to be motivated because they’re fighting against something and they’re not happy with what’s going on. Eight months ago, I’d say pundits and pollsters would have said, [for] Republicans, it’s kind of a slam dunk. Biden’s favorability was was pretty low, we had inflation, and there’s so much wrong right now. Those things were really top of mind for people, and then two things happened: We had the Uvalde shooting, and right around that same time the news leaked that the Supreme Court was going to overturn Roe. And then the Supreme Court actually overturning Roe kind of switched things up. It sort of shifted the winds a little bit against Republicans. Maybe Democrats have a slight advantage in that polling, but maybe not.
Four out of five of the candidates Donald Trump endorsed actually won their primaries. But there was also some wishful thinking on the part of Democrats that these candidates who were pretty extreme would be easier to beat than some of the more moderate Republican candidates. What are you hearing about that out in the field?
We’re not in a post-Trump world, so I wouldn’t say any election against a Trump-endorsed candidate is an easy election. I’ve been doing research among voters on election manipulation and those efforts, and especially [among] the more moderate voters, they don’t necessarily believe the big lie, but they don’t necessarily not believe it. I think what they’re really focused on is not even whether Trump endorses a candidate; what they’re interested in is, is that candidate trying to make their side win at any cost? Are they trying to have control over elections or are they willing to stand up even against her own party? Those kinds of things are what voters are looking at.
Let’s talk about what people are concerned about. You mentioned Uvalde and the overturning of Roe v. Wade. When it comes to those two issues, abortion rights and reducing gun violence, where do they stand on the list of voter priorities?
It depends on who you’re looking at. Among Democratic voters (among some key segments), abortion, women’s rights, [and] gun violence are at the top above economic issues. Among Latina women, those are at the top. Among women of reproductive age, 18 to 44, those are at the top. It’s the same among suburban women. If you look at Republican voters, abortion is not at the top. Republicans and anti-abortion voters used to be single-issue voters. After the overturning of Roe, we’ve seen that reversed. So now Democrats are single-issue voters. For Republicans, the economy, inflation, crime, and the border are at the top. And then you have independents, and for them, it’s a mix of issues with economic issues at the top.
You talked about inflation, obviously, the economy is going through some tough times. The stock market is getting hammered. Interest rates are going up. Do you think that among independent and even Democratic voters, those issues are going to rise a bit in the list of priorities?
With independents, I think it definitely could, because it’s already at the top. And we vote on a lot of things that relate directly to our survival, and in this country, you literally can’t live without money. So that’s why the economy and inflation are such core voting issues. I think that could rise to the top among Democrats, but my sense is that abortion and gun violence, [and] concern about democracy and rights and freedoms are probably going to stay at the top. That’s just my sense, but it does kind of depend on what’s on their mind [in] six weeks.
That’s not all we talked to Undem about — Katie picked her brain on world politics (including Italy’s new Prime Minister), Joe Biden’s approval rating and what that could signal, immigration, and other issues. Check out the full interview on Instagram.
