The result will have serious implications for next year’s midterm elections.
The two men vying to be the next governor of Virginia are locked in a dead heat. On Election Day, here’s what you need to know about this critical race — and what it may mean for the rest of the country.
Who’s running?
Democrat Terry McAuliffe (who served one term as governor from 2014 to 2018) squares off against Republican Glenn Youngkin, the former CEO of a global investment firm.
What are their talking points?
McAuliffe points to his record as a leader who brought jobs back to the state after the recession, and he says he’ll do the same post-pandemic. He’s also painting Youngkin as “another Donald Trump” in a bid to lure moderate Republicans in the state who were turned off by the former president, according to Dr. Larry Sabato, the Director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.
Youngkin has pitched tax cuts, but his focus lately has been tapping into the divisive cultural issues that have inflamed portions of the GOP base, like vaccine mandates and critical race theory (which is not taught in Virginia’s schools), Sabato said. He’s also looking to play up McAuliffe’s ties to President Joe Biden, whose approval rating in the state has slipped considerably in recent months.
What do the polls say?
In mid-August, McAuliffe led in public opinion polls by five points. But in the weeks leading up to the election, that lead has all but evaporated. Plus, Virginia has a streak dating back to 1977 of electing governors from the party opposite of the president, Sabato notes.
Why is this race so important?
Democrats are surprised that it’s come down to the wire — and worried about what that means for their future, not just in Virginia but nationally. Just a year ago, Biden won the state by 10 points. “The fact that this race is so close is good news for Republicans,” Sabato says.
The result in Virginia is expected to be a key indicator for how things might go during the midterm elections in 2022, when Democrats will fight to keep their Congressional majorities. Virginia’s governor’s race is seen as a bellwether for what could happen across the nation, and a McAuliffe loss might mean Biden’s party will have a tough time defending against Republicans.
