What U.S. Divisions Mean for Russia and Ukraine

Mourners gather in Rome to mark the death of Alexei Navalny.

Trump’s attitude to the death of Alexei Navalny could spell trouble for Ukraine.

The sudden death of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny has sharpened focus on the country at a moment when the question of U.S. aid to Ukraine could determine the outcome of the war. Here’s what’s going on. 

On the battlefield

Per NBC News, Ukrainian soldiers say delays in U.S. aid have left them exposed to the Russian advance, with morale decreasing day by day. “The situation on the battlefield is getting worse every week,” said one soldier. 

The U.S. has given Ukraine more than $47 billion in military support since the beginning of the war, but a bill that would offer more aid has stalled in Congress. In the meantime, Ukraine is running low on ammunition, and Russia is taking advantage of its vulnerability.

The political situation in the U.S.

Between pro-Trump Republicans’ refusal to budge on Ukraine aid and the former president’s recent comments that he’d let Russia attack “delinquent” NATO countries, President Biden’s promises of support to Ukraine’s President Zelensky are on shaky ground. 

After a call between Biden and Zelensky on Saturday, the White House said that “Ukraine’s military was forced to withdraw from Avdiivka after Ukrainian soldiers had to ration ammunition due to dwindling supplies as a result of congressional inaction, resulting in Russia’s first notable gains in months.”

On Monday, President Biden said that House Republicans are making a “big mistake” by not meeting Russian aggression with more military support for Ukraine.

“Look, the way they’re walking away from the threat of Russia, the way they’re walking away from the threat of NATO, the way they’re walking away from meeting our obligation, it’s shocking,” he said. “I’ve never seen anything like this.” 

What if Trump wins the White House?

The political impasse in the U.S. is painting a stark picture of what we might expect if Trump wins a second presidential term. Though he’s compared Navalny’s death to his own legal struggles, Trump’s conspicuously failed to join the global chorus condemning Russia’s President Putin for it.

“The sudden death of Alexei Navalny has made me more and more aware of what is happening in our Country,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “It is a slow, steady progression, with CROOKED, Radical Left Politicians, Prosecutors, and Judges leading us down a path to destruction. Open Borders, Rigged Elections, and Grossly Unfair Courtroom Decisions are DESTROYING AMERICA. WE ARE A NATION IN DECLINE, A FAILING NATION! MAGA2024.”

Former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley, Trump’s only remaining competition for the GOP nomination, slammed the former president for his failure to point the finger at Putin.

“Donald Trump could have condemned [Russian President] Vladimir Putin for being a murderous thug,” she tweeted. “Trump could have praised Navalny’s courage. Instead, he stole a page from liberals’ playbook, denouncing America and comparing our country to Russia.”

As the situation stands, whether or not Trump wins another term, his powerful hold over House Republicans, determination to undermine NATO, and resolve to focus on internal issues over foreign aid could put Russia in a stronger position — and leave Ukraine hanging in the balance.