The debate over a Mississippi law is considered one of the most consequential in decades.
The future of abortion rights hangs in the balance as the Supreme Court plans to hear oral arguments on Wednesday over a controversial Mississippi abortion law.
As of early December 2, the Supreme Court looks set to uphold Mississippi’s restrictive law. It’s unclear whether the court’s conservative majority will overrule Roe v. Wade, which established the constitutional right to an abortion, but activists are already strategizing for a post-Roe world.
We broke down the case in question, Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, and what it means for women all across the state and all across the country.
What does Mississippi’s law entail?
The Mississippi law at the center of the case is officially known as H.B. 1510, or the Gestational Age Act, and it bans nearly all abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy.
After the law was first passed in 2018, the state’s only abortion clinic, Jackson Women’s Health Organization, filed a lawsuit to block it, and the courts ruled in its favor after finding that the law conflicted with Roe v. Wade, the 1973 Supreme Court decision that grants the constitutional right for women to have an abortion. More specifically, the Mississippi statute challenges a fundamental premise of this landmark ruling, which asserts that states cannot restrict abortion before fetal viability, which is the ability of a fetus to survive outside the uterus, generally considered to be reached around 24 weeks into pregnancy.
That’s why legal experts believe it would be impossible for the court to uphold this law and still leave Roe wholly intact. Drexel University law professor David Cohen tells us that in taking up the case, the justices are showing that they’re “willing to reconsider” this decades-long precedent.
Similarly, Florida State University law professor Mary Ziegler believes that the Supreme Court’s decision to hear the case was very much a “conscious choice,” and it “suggests that they’re going to do something bold on abortion soon and that Roe is definitely in peril.” To her, it’s not a matter of whether the Supreme Court will strike down Roe v. Wade, but rather a matter of when, and she estimates that could happen in the next few years.
“This is more like a stop on the journey and not an endpoint, really, regardless of what the Supreme Court says,” she tells us, noting that Roe has already been weakened over time.
What are the implications of this case?
It’s seen by legal experts as a direct challenge to Roe v. Wade, and even though Mississippi’s statute wouldn’t outlaw abortions outright, it could redefine the right to an abortion as we know it.
But this case (and others like it) didn’t come out of nowhere. Overturning this decision has also been part of a decades-long, concerted effort by Republicans and anti-abortion activists. Since 1973, they’ve sought to narrow or overturn the legal right to an abortion, and that has informed Supreme Court nominations. In fact, former President Trump vowed to appoint justices who would overturn Roe v. Wade before going on to nominate Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett.
“This case is hugely important because it presents a direct challenge to the precedent of Roe V. Wade, and the Supreme Court could use this as an opportunity to end nationwide legal abortion,” says Cohen. “This has been a goal of the conservative anti-abortion movement for almost half a century, and they might now see it come to fruition.”
The stakes of this case are especially high as it marks the most distinct test yet of the 6-3 conservative court’s majority. The court’s conservative majority has the power to renounce nearly five decades of legal precedent — and in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, the justices have been asked to do just that. In court filings, Mississippi’s attorney general Lynn Fitch explicitly urged them to overrule Roe and related rulings, calling the court’s precedent on abortion “egregiously wrong.”
What would happen if Roe v. Wade is overturned?
If the Supreme Court entirely does away with Roe v. Wade, Cohen estimates that almost half of all states will ban abortion either immediately or very soon after the decision. “It’s going to leave everyone else in the position of either trying to obtain an unlawful abortion, obtain pills through online sources or other sources, or carry their pregnancies to term against their will,” he tells us.
Cohen’s assessment is backed up by a 2019 study by The Center for Reproductive Rights, which analyzed abortion laws in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, and several U.S. territories. After inventorying what measures would be left in place if Roe were weakened or overturned, the group found that 24 states and three territories would likely move to impose some form of ban on abortion. Twelve states, including Mississippi and Texas, have already passed “trigger laws” to ban abortion if Roe v. Wade is overturned.
Doing away with Roe v. Wade would not only exacerbate an existing patchwork of laws, but it would also disproportionately impact those who are already vulnerable. “The people who are most impacted by these crucial unconstitutional laws are people who already have the least access to affordable, high-quality healthcare,” says former Planned Parenthood president Cecile Richards. “And that’s young people women, women of color, [and] people who live in rural areas where healthcare is often very hard to come by.”
What are abortion advocates saying?
Abortion advocates are on pins and needles waiting on the Supreme Court’s decision, with Cohen calling it “a very scary moment” for the pro-choice world. While a decision isn’t expected until early July, these advocates have already made it clear that no matter how this case shakes out, they plan on continuing to stand up for abortion rights.
“Women of child-bearing age in the U.S. have never known a world in which they don’t have this basic right, and we will keep fighting to make sure they never will,” Nancy Northup, who is president and CEO of the Center for Reproductive Rights, said in a statement.
This case comes amid another high-stakes abortion battle over Texas’s S.B. 8, which bans abortion at the first sign of fetal cardiac activity after around six weeks. Even though the justices fast-tracked that case earlier this month, the timing of the decision remains unclear. In the meantime, this restrictive Texas law has remained in effect, giving the rest of the country a glimpse into what a world without Roe v. Wade might look like.
But despite these ongoing legal battles, abortion does have broad support among Americans. Reflecting attitudes since 2005, 60 percent of respondents said the Supreme Court should uphold the Roe decision, while another 27 percent said the court should dismantle it, according to a recent Washington Post-ABC News poll. That’s why many activists say the aim to roll back abortion rights has to do with politics and not people.
“People who need reproductive health care, they come from all parties and all walks of life,” Richards, who’s now co-chair of the Super PAC American Bridge 21st Century, tells us. “This is not a partisan or political issue. It’s a healthcare issue.”
