Experts weigh in.
On Tuesday, a federal jury finally handed down its verdict in Hunter Biden’s gun trial: He was found guilty on all three criminal counts. Now, he’s facing a potential prison sentence, and the decision looms large because it also coincides with his father’s reelection campaign.
Following the news, President Joe Biden said he and the first lady will always be there for their son with their “love and support.” This marks the first time a sitting president’s child has faced a criminal conviction, and some are wondering whether it’ll affect Biden’s chances of maintaining his place in the White House.
According to an Emerson poll taken last week, 64 percent of voters said Hunter Biden’s trial would not impact their vote, 24 percent said it makes them less likely to support Biden, and 12 percent said it makes them more likely to back him.
While even a tiny shift in these numbers could tip the scales, political scientist Hans Noel ultimately believes it’s unlikely to move voters one way or the other. “Most of the people who will be paying close enough attention to follow any of this have already made up their minds,” says Noel, an associate professor at Georgetown University. “And they’ve been talking about Hunter Biden for a long time, so there’s not much new there.”
However, the verdict does upend one of former President Trump’s central talking points, accusing the current president of weaponizing the Justice Department. That point might be more challenging, if not impossible, to prove now that a prosecutor working under that very same agency just won a conviction against the president’s son.
“The Republican critique is that Joe Biden is the puppetmaster of a partisan Justice Department that convicted Trump,” Democratic media strategist Brian Goldsmith tells Katie Couric Media. “That attack has been blown to smithereens by the same Justice Department convicting the president’s beloved and only living son.”
Fellow Republicans agree that it hurts Trump’s argument about the “weaponization” of the justice system. “Hunter Biden’s conviction definitely weakens the argument,” one of Trump’s donors, Dan Eberhart, told NBC. “To me, the justice system is working.”
Tuesday’s outcome has indeed created a surprising complication for Republicans, as seen in their disjointed reactions. In response to the news, former Trump advisor Kash Patel argued that Hunter’s trial was fair, and Trump’s hush money conviction wasn’t.
“Hunter Biden’s guilty verdict is a rare example of constitutional justice, one not where individuals receive biased treatment based on their last name,” Patel said in a statement. “The jury was able to consider the prosecution and defense evidence in full, in accordance with due process — a right that was single-handedly bastardized against President Trump by the judge, jury and prosecutors in New York.”
But then Trump campaign spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt called the decision “nothing more than a distraction” from what she said are the “real crimes” committed by Biden and his family. Hunter’s also facing federal tax charges.
Trump and his allies have repeatedly claimed that the president has illegally benefited from Hunter Biden’s overseas business dealings. Despite opening a sprawling probe into these claims, House Republicans have yet to come up with any compelling evidence to support this. In fact, Alexander Smirnov, one of the key witnesses at the center of the investigation, has since been indicted on charges of lying to the FBI about Joe and Hunter Biden.
If anything, our strategists believe Hunter Biden’s verdict vindicates the president. “Hunter Biden is not running for president and is not a part of the Biden administration. These charges don’t really implicate Biden or the administration either,” says Noel. “Democrats can also argue that this case shows that Biden is not manipulating the legal system the way that Trump claims he is. If Biden were able to orchestrate the Trump trials, why couldn’t he orchestrate a dismissal here?”
Though President Biden has distanced himself from the legal proceedings, he pointed to his dual obligations at the start of the trial, saying, “I am the president, but I am also a dad.”
