“This was not at all on my 2024 bingo card,” says foreign policy expert Hagar Chemali.
For the last 14 years, President Bashar al-Assad has been struggling to keep control of Syria, leading to a brutal civil war. Since 2011, more than 500,000 Syrians have died, including more than 200,000 civilians, and millions more have been driven out of their homes.
Then, the unthinkable happened on Sunday: Rebel groups took control of the country, forcing Assad to flee the country and take refuge with his allies in Russia. This abrupt exit brought an end to his family’s 54-year rule, prompting a joyous response. Syrians poured into the streets in celebration of the news as police and military officers fled their posts.
Former United States National Security Council Director Hagar Chemali calls it a “stunning” new development. “This was not on my 2024 bingo card, and it wasn’t for any foreign policy expert,” Chemali tells Katie Couric Media.
But there are many questions about the future of the country and the wider region, so we turned to Chemali to explain it.
Katie Couric Media: Were you surprised at all by the toppling of Syria’s government?
Hagar Chemali: It’s completely stunning. Nothing up until the end of this year indicated this was even possible. But it became possible because at the end of the year, [Syrian president] Bashar al-Assad’s “club of baddies” were all weakened significantly over the year.
You have Iran on the defense after being struck by Israel. Plus, Iran is afraid of Donald Trump and might want to behave better with him in office. You have Hezbollah, which has been significantly decimated — numerous leaders and commanders have been killed, and a big chunk of their arsenal has been blown up.
And then you have Russia, which has been spending all of its resources on its war in Ukraine and is obviously distracted by that. Those three allies were critical in propping Assad up during the Civil War. In fact, Assad likely wouldn’t have been able to win the Civil War or stay in power if Russia, in particular, hadn’t come to save him in 2014.
So all of this was just stunning to watch. On the one hand, these rebels obviously saw this opportunity — they knew we, as allies, were weak. There was also an element of surprise, which clearly helped them take over these cities and do it so quickly.
But there’s another really important piece: The reason rebels were so successful and quick was because of how Assad’s military defected along the way. With every stop that the rebels approached, the military abandoned their posts, or they defected — and a dictator cannot stand without their military. [That’s because] Assad is a repressive, brutal dictator, and he did nothing to change anything. People were disgruntled and unhappy.
What does this takeover mean for the future of Syria, especially the Syrian people?
I’m overjoyed to see Assad run away like a coward, and I hope he faces his day in court. I’m also incredibly worried about the future of Syria, because the main rebel group, [Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or H.T.S.] that has taken over has been designated as a terrorist organization — not just by the United States, but also the United Nations, which means that every single U.N. member country sanctions it.
They lead with a conservative, if not extreme, Islamic rule. They extort their own people. They have crushed minorities such as Christians, Jews, Kurds, and so on. And while they have made all these promises that they’re going to hold elections and partner with the Prime Minister of Syria and so on, I just don’t have much hope for it because they don’t know how to govern. They are Islamists at the end of the day. Even if they have disavowed terrorism and cut ties with Al-Qaeda, they are very extreme.
When things like this happen in Syria, it actually awakens other militias and groups, and they take advantage of that instability to pursue their own agenda. I only foresee instability in Syria and more strife, unfortunately, and that’s going to hurt the civilians the most.
While the country likely won’t become stable, I don’t think Syrian deaths will be on the same scale that there were under the Syrian government, because they don’t have that kind of weaponry and machinery anymore.
Why did Syrian President Bashar al-Assad flee to Russia?
Syria, particularly the Assad family, has always maintained a very close relationship with Russia. It was Russia’s interference that turned the tides back in Assad’s favor in 2014. The ultimate ceasefire in 2020 between Assad and the Syrian rebels was brokered in part by Russia and Putin himself.
Then, last week, when the rebels took the city of Aleppo, Assad and his family immediately went to Putin for help. Assad’s wife and children remained in Russia, while Assad returned to Syria. As of yesterday, his government had said that he would be addressing the nation at 8:00 p.m. Syria time. Obviously, that speech never happened, and he was nowhere to be found.
Russia has a vested interest in Syria — it has a military base along the coastal area of Syria. It’s hard to say what will happen to that base, but if it falls under rebel control, the Russians will surely lose it. [Which could pose a problem because] Russia doesn’t want the U.S. to be the only other country that has military bases in the Middle East.
What does Syria’s shift in power mean for the Middle East, particularly the Israel-Hamas war?
What happened in Syria is a result of the weakening of the “axis of resistance,” which includes Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis. They’ve been pushed back on their heels and in some cases, completely decimated and decapitated.
In response to the latest development, Israel has beefed up its military presence on the southern border of Syria, where the southern border meets the Golan Heights, which Israel annexed in 1967. Since there are Israeli citizens who live there, Israel has also apparently even gone a little bit into that border and created a more significant buffer zone.
While I’m happy to see Assad go, there’s no way Syrian rebels are going to be making peace at all with Israel, the United States, or the West in general.
Does the U.S. have any influence in Syria now, or does it need a new strategy?
The U.S. doesn’t have the opportunity to influence the situation right now because of the various rebel groups involved who have no intention of making friends with us.
The Biden administration only has six weeks left, so their priority is going to be to protect the Kurds and ensure that ISIS doesn’t reemerge. When Trump comes into office, he has already said that he doesn’t want to see the U.S. interfere in this.
The U.S. will end up having to potentially change its strategy if this group becomes like the Taliban. If they do impose a harsh Islamic rule, then the strategy will shift to ensure that they don’t pose a threat to Lebanon, Israel, or Jordan, which are all strong partners of the United States.
Regardless, the U.S. needs to prioritize getting back American journalist Austin Tice, who was kidnapped in Syria by a terrorist group in 2012 and detained by the Syrian government. We’ve known for years now that he’s there and alive and well. The U.S. needs to find a way to get him back here as soon as possible.
This interview has been edited and condensed for clarity and length.
