This level of uncertainty about the role hasn’t happened in 100 years.
One of the top jobs in Washington is still up for grabs after presumed Republican frontrunner Kevin McCarthy was blocked by members of his own party from securing the gavel — and the move was nothing short of historic.
For the first time in a century, the House failed to elect a Speaker on its first round of voting after a group of 20 Republicans staged a mutiny against McCarthy to deny him majority support, which requires 218 votes. Even after 14 rounds of voting unfolded, McCarthy fell short of getting the job and vowed to fight on.
But it was an uphill battle from the get-go: House Republicans had a slim majority going into the 118th Congress (the House has 222 incoming Republicans, 212 incoming Democrats, and one vacancy left by the death of Democratic Rep. Donald McEachin).
This drama has already had some far-reaching effects: Members of the new 118th Congress won’t be sworn in and the House can’t start considering new legislation until after a Speaker is chosen. The parliamentary procedure of Congress is governed by the Revised Statutes of the United States, which originally became law in 1874, and states that a Speaker must be given the oath of office “previous to entering on any other business.”
Since this clearly states that installing a leader for the chamber must happen before anything else can move forward, it’s led to serious questions about how this delayed selection could affect other businesses. If there were a sudden emergency, could Congress legally take action to address it? With elected officials yet to be sworn in, who’s meant to handle routine issues constituents have with their passports or the IRS? Can representatives’ paychecks be authorized as usual?
As Republicans continue to spar over who to put in that seat, here’s what we know so far.
What happened?
McCarthy’s quest for the speakership began with a series of setbacks. On both the first and second ballots, the California Republican received 203 votes, which is just 15 short of the votes needed to win. It’s also worth noting that all 19 of McCarthy’s detractors, who had split their votes among several lawmakers in the first round, coalesced around Rep. Jim Jordan in the second round. In the third round, another Republican — Rep. Byron Donalds — defected from McCarthy’s side, tossing a 20th vote Jordan’s way.
Meanwhile, McCarthy and his allies were still holding out in hopes that his opposers will switch to “present” instead of voting for someone else, so he will be able to win with a smaller majority. But that tactic failed over the course of the next 11 rounds of votes, where he ended up losing support at one point and dropped down to 201 votes. And this time instead of nominating Jordan, the GOP breakaway faction backed Donalds. Former President Donald Trump and GOP Rep. Kevin Hern have also received votes.
Despite these setbacks, the tide started to turn in McCarthy’s favor on Friday when he was able to win over 14 Republicans, who had been mostly casting ballots for other candidates. This notably included some of his fiercest critics, including Representatives Chip Roy, Andy Biggs, Lauren Boebert, and Matt Gaetz.
Meanwhile, Democrats have stayed united behind New York Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, who is poised to become the first Black party leader in either chamber of Congress.
Why are Republicans so opposed to McCarthy?
Most of McCarthy’s opponents come from the far-right wing of the party known as the “House Freedom Caucus,” which has traditionally been aligned with Trump. The bad blood started when members pushed former Republican Speaker John Boehner into early retirement in 2015, then opposed McCarthy’s bid to succeed him. Another group of ultra-conservatives, known as “Never Kevin,” have also promised to oppose the California Republican, and though McCarthy has tried to make inroads with them, he hasn’t had much luck.
The group and other Republicans have rejected McCarthy’s attempts to compromise. In a last-ditch effort over the weekend to win votes, the embattled Republican offered up a plan that would modify how House rules. This includes allowing lawmakers to use spending bills to defund specific programs and fire federal officials or reduce their pay. McCarthy’s biggest concession was a willingness to allow five lawmakers to call a vote at any time to oust the Speaker. Since then, he has made a few more compromises that would weaken the speakership and hand more power to The Freedom Caucus. Still, many within the right flank continue to voice their opposition.
Amid growing divisions within the party, former President Trump stepped and called on the House GOP to rally around McCarthy, but even that did nothing to sway some of the party’s hardliners at least at first. “This changes neither my view of McCarthy, nor Trump, nor my vote,” Gaetz told Fox News Digital.
Are there any alternative Republican candidates?
If McCarthy fails to win the necessary votes, there could be a number of other Republicans in the running, including Steve Scalise and Fred Upton. Representatives Biggs and former Rep. Lee Zeldin, who have already picked up some speakership votes, could also assume the prized House role.
That said, Rep. Paul Ryan (who served as Speaker of the House from 2015 to 2019) didn’t emerge as a top contender until after Boehner stepped down from the position, so it’s safe to say anything is possible at this point.
What’s next?
With no majority choice clear as of now, the House will continue to vote until it elects a new Speaker. Several lawmakers, including Gaetz, predicted that the vote could take days and multiple ballots.
“After internal debate, Republicans will come together and pick the right leader for the role, and that should not be Kevin McCarthy,” Gaetz wrote in an op-ed for the right-leaning news site The Daily Caller.
If neither side budges, then Republican Main Street Caucus has proposed joining forces with Democrats to nominate retiring Michigan GOP Rep. Fred Upton for the speaker role, according to the political website Roll Call. For context, the position doesn’t need to be held by a current lawmaker, though no Congress has ever elected a speaker who also wasn’t a member.
All that to say: Stay tuned for what’s sure to be a long battle for this coveted position.
