Insiders weigh in.
President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are poised to face off for the first time in four years on Thursday, and some insiders say it could be the most consequential presidential debate in decades.
While the Biden-Trump match-up is nothing new, this one will be full of firsts — never before have two presumptive nominees debated so early in the general election season or at such advanced ages. (Biden is 81 and Trump is 78.) It’s also unprecedented that we have two one-term presidents with actual records to compare.
Democratic strategist David Tafuri, who worked on President Obama’s 2008 campaign, tells Katie Couric Media the debate will “really be the first chance for both candidates to define what this election is about.” Similarly, Jonae Wartel, who’s leading Biden’s reelection in Georgia, said the showdown could be clarifying for voters — even with these well-established contenders.
“We haven’t had an opportunity to see them go head to head on key issues that American voters are most concerned about, such as the economy, reproductive freedom, climate, and the cost of healthcare so that contrast is on full display in a debate setting,” she tells Katie Couric Media.
Still, others are on the fence about the importance of this debate, saying it depends on how they do. “If they both have solid performances, the debate is unlikely to change the trajectory of this race dramatically,” says GOP strategist Matt Terrill, managing partner at Firehouse Strategies, who previously served on Florida Sen. Marco Rubio’s presidential campaign in 2016. “However, if one of these candidates underperforms expectations, it could.”
The current 538 national polling average shows a tie in the stubbornly tight race. Still, some polls show Trump has a wide advantage in crucial battleground states, and even the slightest shift could decide the election outcome.
So, we took a closer look at why this primetime event is getting so much attention and why it matters more than previous ones.
No props, no notes, and no audience
Political analyst Rich Rubino believes the 90-minute show is going to be “the most consequential debate” in two decades — and he largely attributes that to its unprecedented timing and format.
Rubino emphasizes that it’s by far the earliest date any such event has been staged — so early that neither candidate has been officially nominated yet. Since the first televised debates in 1960 between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon, they’ve all occurred in September or October.
There will also be no audience, so there will be no random outbursts. CNN will also cut off microphones when a candidate’s speaking time ends, hopefully leading to fewer interruptions. These are all things Trump agreed to, but that hasn’t stopped the former president from claiming without evidence that moderators Jake Tapper and Dana Bush are biased against him.
Still, this perceived imbalance likely won’t prevent his supporters from tuning in. “It’s just a very unusual format,” Republican strategist Steve Yates tells us. “People might watch with some curiosity to see how it works.”
Democratic strategists agree that the updates will benefit Biden. They believe that under the new format, Trump won’t be as able to overwhelm the president’s answers with crosstalk and feed off the energy of an audience as he does at his rallies.
“These rules are going to highlight Trump’s weaknesses,” Tafuri says. “He won’t be able to engage in his usual antics of getting a reaction from a crowd, and there’s not going to be this as much back-and-forth arguing as there was in the first debate four years ago, so he’s going to be more on the hook to actually answer the question that is put to him.”
How are the candidates preparing for the big night?
Both Trump and Biden are out of practice as debaters. Neither candidate has debated in four years, and they’ll likely be asked tough questions about their presidential records as well as legal entanglements. The former president was found guilty of 34 counts of falsifying business records and is facing three other ongoing criminal cases. While Biden’s not on trial, his son, Hunter Biden, was just convicted on all three felony charges related to the purchase of a revolver in 2018.
Yet, they’re taking very different approaches to preparing: Biden is holed up at a retreat in Maryland known as Camp David. In this secluded area, all 12 of his aides are likely helping him refine his pitch to voters and whatever moderators (or Trump) throws at him. Even his personal attorney, Bob Bauer, has been recruited in the effort and is rumored to be reprising his role as a stand-in for Trump during mock debates.
Tafuri, who has been involved in previous debate preps, says that Biden will likely be prepping themes for November’s election, including why it’s especially consequential. “Biden has to inspire people and convince people in this debate that this election is important,” he says. “If voter turnout is very low, he’s much less likely to prevail.”
Tafuri also hopes the president will come prepared to address economic concerns, which remains a top issue in battleground states like Pennsylvania. “It’s important for Biden to be able to explain why the country can have a very strong economy, and yet people can still feel like they’re not doing better,” he says.
On the other hand, Trump is taking a much more relaxed approach, spending most of the lead-up to the debate on the campaign trail and holding informal policy talks on issues like immigration and the economy. But that doesn’t mean the debate’s not on his mind — he spent much of his rally on Saturday talking about it and ridiculing Biden. “He’s sleeping now because they want to get him good and strong,” he said at one point.
While the former president’s rhetoric may be entertaining to supporters, insiders hope the president stays on message. “Trump really needs to focus on demonstrating leadership — steadfast leadership, presidential leadership — and then on two main issues: inflation and immigration,” says Terrill. “If he does that in this debate, it will be a good night for President Trump.”
If he doesn’t come cool and collected, Democratic strategists believe Biden should take full advantage of that. “Trump has shown that when he’s under pressure, he resorts to insults and tirades,” Wartel says. “And if he’s looking unpresidential, that’s something President Biden’s campaign will likely capitalize on.”
Ultimately, our strategists agree that the debate will show which of the two candidates’ differing styles resonates most with voters. “This is a very important moment for Americans to size up these two candidates,” says Yates.
