Here’s which elections to pay close attention to this year.
It’s another Election Day in America — and yes, you can expect to see pundits use the results from these midterms to predict the outcome of the 2024 presidential race, from now until next November. All joking aside, there are significant elections taking place across the country today, with some considered major tossups (with equally major implications), while others seem more predictable (and yet have equally wide-ranging implications).
From the future of abortion access in the Midwest, to the future of all 140 seats in a state legislature (yes, you read that correctly), there’s a lot to pay attention to — which is why we’re offering a breakdown of the most essential races to watch on this Election Day.
Virginia state legislature (tossup)
In Virginia, both political parties are hoping to flip razor-thin margins in the state House and Senate. Republicans, who hold a small majority in the House, are aiming to flip the Senate — and, in doing so, gain full control of the state legislature with Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin at the helm. Democrats are working to avoid that outcome, which would inevitably lead to an onslaught of right-wing bills, including measures related to abortion access and transgender rights.
Every single Senate and House seat is on the ballot this year, but only a handful in northern Virginia are considered to be highly competitive. The election outcome is considered a tossup at this point.
Kentucky Governor’s race (tossup)
It’s hard to think of a state that gives less “swing state” vibes than Kentucky — and yet one of the most popular politicians in the deep-red state right now is Democratic incumbent Andy Beshear. Having served as governor since 2019, Beshear boasts an approval rating of about 60% in polls (having even 50% approval tends to be impressive; anything over that is a political home run).
Beshear’s opponent, Republican Daniel Cameron, the state’s attorney general and a native Kentuckian, has slowly crawled towards a tie with Beshear. If the Democrat governor manages to squeak out another victory, it’ll certainly become a topic of conversation in the context of the upcoming presidential race, with Biden campaign experts racing to figure out how to channel that magic elsewhere in the country.
Uvalde, Texas Mayoral Race (tossup)
In the wake of the 2022 school shooting that left 19 students and two teachers dead, the Texas town of Uvalde is looking to move forward — and for one of the parents who lost a child in that shooting, moving forward looks like running for mayor.
The Uvalde mayoral race is a special election: The current mayor, Republican Don McLaughlin, has decided to step down to pursue a Texas house seat. Now, a mother of one of the slain children in the Uvalde shooting is hoping to take over. Kimberly Mata-Rubio is up against two other candidates — former mayor Cody Smith, and a Uvalde teacher named Veronica Martinez. The race is considered a tossup. If Mata-Rubio wins, she will become Uvalde’s first female mayor.
A quick note: Last year, before announcing her political aspirations, Mata-Rubio spoke with us about her advocacy work against gun violence, what it was like to testify before Congress, and what it means to honor her daughter’s memory. You can read the emotional interview here.
Ohio Issue 1 (tossup)
In one of the most closely watched elections in the country, Ohio voters will decide on a measure that determines the fate of reproductive-health access in the state. The constitutional amendment, known as Issue 1, would enshrine a number of protections related to reproductive freedom, including an individual’s right to contraception, fertility treatment, and miscarriage care, as well as their right to an abortion up to fetal viability, which is generally considered to be 22-24 weeks of pregnancy.
The measure, if approved, would also serve as an protective layer against a six-week abortion ban currently being deliberated upon by Ohio’s Supreme Court. Polls have reflected a variety of outcomes for Issue 1 — some reflect high levels of support for the bill, while others reflect it as a tossup.
Mississippi governor’s race (tossup)
Governor Tate Reeves, the Republican Governor of Kentucky, is fighting for a second term in office against Democrat Brandon Presley, a public service commissioner (and, notably, a second cousin of Elvis Presley). Mississippi is a historically red state, but Reeves’ approval has been extremely low — largely because of an ongoing, state-level investigation into the alleged misuse of millions of dollars in welfare funds during Reeves’ stint at lieutenant governor.
Now, the gubernatorial race is the closest its been in 20 years, and Democrats are looking for a major upset on election day.
Pennsylvania state Supreme Court race & mayoral race (tossup & Democratic-leaning)
We’re only a year away from the next presidential election — and one of the most critical swing states in the country is poised to offer an idea of which direction it’s leaning politically, via two elections. The first race is to fill a vacant seat on the state Supreme Court: Democrat Daniel McCaffery, a judge and military veteran, is competing against another judge, Republican Carolyn Carluccio. Since both judges are relative political newcomers, with little name recognition, the election is a tossup. It’s also worth noting that this seat won’t flip majority power for the Supreme Court, which currently reflects a 4-2 advantage for Democrats.
Then there’s the Philadelphia mayoral race, pitting Democrat Cherelle Parker, a longtime politician in Pennsylvania, against Republican David Oh, a former Philadelphia council member. (The current Philadelphia mayor, Democrat Jim Kenney, can’t run again due to term limits.) Unlike the tossup for the Pennsylvania Supreme Court seat, Parker — who has received multiple White House endorsements — is favored to beat Oh.
It’s safe to say we’ll be refreshing those election results pages all day long…
