A veteran political journalist weighs in on the controversy.
The discovery of classified documents dating back to his vice presidency in President Biden’s private home and office is certainly raising some legal questions — but many are also wondering what it means for his political future.
With Biden expected to make his reelection public in the next few weeks, some worry scrutiny of his handling of those records could potentially overshadow his 2024 presidential bid, especially when it comes to running against likely presidential contender Donald Trump.
Though the president has said he was “surprised” to learn of the discoveries, he also previously branded Trump as “irresponsible” for storing classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, a statement which longtime reporter Jonathan Alter says “exposes Biden to hypocrisy.”
“It also muddies Biden’s ability and the ability of the Democrats to go after Trump for what he did with the documents at Mar-a-Lago,” says Alter, author of the newsletter Old Goats. But he adds that it’d be a mistake to compare the two cases, given that Biden cooperated with authorities and that Trump refused to give back all his records from his time in the Oval Office.
As we look ahead to the next election cycle, Alter breaks down how the revelations surrounding the sensitive documents could cause a major headache for Biden — and potentially open up the field for other White House hopefuls.
Katie Couric Media: President Biden is hardly the first — and likely not the last — White House official to mishandle classified documents. How will it impact him going into 2024?
Jonathan Alter: I don’t think the documents issued by themselves will be a major issue in the 2024 election.
The Obama-Biden administration was very clean, but now Biden has a special counsel who’s looking into his conduct. I expect he’ll come out of it with a slap on the wrist. I say that because the key element in these cases is intentionality. And there’s no evidence that Biden intended to either take these classified documents, or store them in his home and office. That’s not true for Donald Trump, which is why he’s in more legal jeopardy on this question than either Joe Biden or Mike Pence.
What do you make of the White House’s response to the controversy so far?
I think it’s been ham-handed. When there’s a controversy or scandal, the best advice is always to get all the bad news out as quickly as you can. The Biden White House should’ve moved very aggressively to search every nook and cranny for more of these documents, turn them all over, and announce publicly that they had done so. Now, the idea that they should have done this six days before the midterm elections, when they first encountered these documents, is unrealistic on two counts. First, they weren’t breaking any law by not disclosing it publicly and it would’ve hurt the Democrats.
So they made a hard-boiled political decision that pretty much any other politician in their shoes would’ve done. And second, they weren’t under any broader obligation to do that because the National Archives didn’t tell the Justice Department about this until later. So the Biden White House wasn’t obliged to do anything, but as soon as the National Archives told the Justice Department that there was this problem, the White House should have come forward with as much information as they could find.
How do you think the FBI’s investigation into the files seized from Mar-a-Lago has affected public perception about the documents found on Biden’s property?
The early polls are interesting. Roughly 80 percent of respondents think that Biden did something wrong, so I think the public takes this seriously, but it hasn’t affected his approval rating. They don’t like these hypocritical politicians putting other people in jail for possessing classified documents when they do the same things themselves.
It also muddies Biden’s ability and the ability of the Democrats to go after Trump for what he did with the documents at Mar-a-Lago, and it exposes Biden to hypocrisy since he attacked Trump’s handling of the documents as irresponsible. Not only that, but it complicates Attorney General Merrick Garland’s job, since he’s trying to figure out how to deal with all of this.
Could the timing of Biden’s classified records discovery benefit Trump and his run for reelection?
I think it helps Trump in two ways: It complicates the legal and the political argument against him on the documents, which was a very good political weapon that Democrats and even other Republicans could use against him. Now, other Republicans like Ron DeSantis can keep this issue alive and say, “Look: Trump, Biden and other possible opponents like Mike Pence have had problems with these documents. I would never jeopardize national security by being sloppy with classified documents.” It’s a pretty good issue for other Republicans to use against Trump, but it’s not a good issue for Democrats to use against him.
Do you think these discoveries potentially offer an advantage to a newcomer?
Definitely. It feeds the possible candidacy for people in both parties. They could go after “sloppy Joe” and “careless Trump” on the documents. It’s not a major weapon, but it’s a nice little brick bat — to use an old political word — to throw against both of them.
What sort of issues do you think will ultimately drive voters to the polls in 2024?
First of all, we should talk about independent voters. Biden carried points with younger voters who, according to polls, don’t have any enthusiasm for Biden at all. So these are our two groups of voters who might be affected by a sense that he’s not just too old, but possibly too careless, to support.
But this issue will likely fade, and then resurface again. Next year, the economy, the border, and Biden’s record of accomplishments are more likely to be the major issues. But it could be very hard to predict. And I do think it’s fair to say that the biggest issue is Biden’s age. He would be 86 years old during the fourth year of his second term.
Do you think officials will try to aim to wrap these investigations up before then?
Yeah, I actually think the special counsel will issue a report on Biden, Trump, and Pence’s cases before the end of this year.
What’s important to keep in mind is that the Trump and Biden cases are very distinct – we should avoid the phony equivalency that some Republicans are trying to make. You even have Republicans who say, “Well, Trump as president was able to declassify documents and Biden couldn’t do so as vice president, so that makes Biden worse. That’s preposterous, because to declassify those documents, Trump would’ve needed to tell somebody that he was doing so and he did not. And on a broader level, Trump knowingly took classified documents out of the White House and then defied a subpoena to return them. Biden didn’t do anything to obstruct justice or fail to corroborate with the authorities. These two cases are not the same.
This interview has been edited and condensed for length and clarity.
