With the midterm elections just weeks away, control of the Senate hangs in the balance. And it’s looking like a real nail-biter to the very end, with tight races in several closely watched swing states, including Georgia and Nevada.
As it currently stands, Democrats hold 48 seats compared to Republicans’ 50 seats, but because the two Independents caucus with Democrats and Vice President Harris breaks a tie, the left has a slight edge. This doesn’t even factor in the fact that Republicans will be largely on the defense (there are 21 GOP and 15 Democratic seats up for grabs).
But it’s not going to be an easy path ahead as President Biden’s public approval rating is hovering at 39 percent. For context, when a president has less than 50 percent of favorability, their party typically loses an average of 37 seats, according to ABC News. Plus, Republicans have the advantage on two of the top issues driving many voters to the polls — the economy and inflation — though Democrats still boast a lead on abortion and climate change.
Then there are some fears around general polling itself. While FiveThirtyEight is predicting that Democrats have a 79 percent chance of retaining control of the Senate, pollsters fear this cycle could be a repeat of the 2016 presidential election, when former President Trump pulled a major upset against then-Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton. As also seen in 2020, it’s believed that a significant chunk of Republican voters were left unaccounted for because they didn’t participate in the polls.
So as the nation anxiously awaits the outcome of the midterms, here’s a breakdown of some of the major races you might want to keep an eye on.
Pennsylvania (Democrats have an edge)
Democrats are growing increasingly optimistic about Pennsylvania, where Democratic nominee John Fetterman is running against Republican Mehmet Oz (aka Dr. Oz). Just last month, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report moved the race from “toss-up” to “lean Democrat.”
Georgia (toss-up)
After pulling a major upset in January 2021 against former Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler, Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock is hoping to serve his first full term, but first, he’ll have to beat out Republican contender Herschel Walker. While Cook Political Report is rating this match as a toss-up, FiveThirtyEight has Warnock slightly up by 2 percentage points.
Nevada (another toss-up)
Republicans are eying Nevada as a potential pickup — and it could very well cost Democrats their majority in the Senate. Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, who made history in 2016 as the state’s first Latina senator, is facing off against Republican Adam Laxalt. The Cook Political Report has rated this race as a toss-up, and a poll from the progressive think tank Data for Progress just last week found that the two candidates are statistically tied.
Ohio (Republicans have an advantage)
Democrats are facing some political headwinds in a state where Trump won twice. Democratic incumbent Rep. Tim Ryan will be taking on Republican contender and Hillbilly Elegy author J.D. Vance. While Ryan has had a fundraising advantage, a poll from Emerson College and The Hill earlier this month found Vance leading by 4 points.
Arizona (too close to call)
Venture capitalist Blake Masters, who received Trump’s backing, is the Republican challenging Sen. Mark Kelly in a race that was initially considered a potential GOP gain. But the tides could be turning: Cook Political Report shifted its rating of the race from “toss-up” to “lean Democrat,” though Republicans have made it clear they’re not giving up quite yet.
“I think it’s destined to be a close race,” GOP strategist Scott Jennings told The Hill.
In terms of other important races to watch, Wisconsin is expected to be another close one, where Lieutenant Gov. Mandela Barnes is up against Republican Sen. Ron Johnson. But a common thread for all of these races is turnout. While that can be hard to predict, enthusiasm is high in both parties.
“Two enthusiastic parties are a key ingredient for record-breaking turnout, and that’s what is likely to happen again this November,” writes Roll Call’s Nathan Gonzales.
