It’s a worrying indicator of two aggressive powers increasing their close ties.
Russia’s attack on Ukraine is becoming ever bloodier, with the civilian casualty count rising day by day as President Putin’s forces tighten their chokehold on the country’s eastern regions, and the Ukrainian army attempts to wrestle back the occupied south.
Against this intense backdrop, the White House announced on July 11 that it has intelligence indicating that Iran is preparing to supply Russia with potentially hundreds of drones, including some with combat capabilities.
All of this feeds into a tense political standoff between not only Putin and President Biden, but also the leaders of several other countries, all of whom have reason to take interest or umbrage in this latest development. Here’s the breakdown.
Iran is sending Russia military drones
“Information indicates that the Iranian government is preparing to provide Russia with up to several hundred (unmanned aerial vehicles), including weapons-capable UAVs on an expedited timeline,” national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters during a White House press briefing on Monday.
Sullivan didn’t indicate whether the drones had already been delivered, but it’s expected that Iran will begin to train the Russian army to operate them before August.
A tactical advantage
Drones are a critical resource in the Ukraine conflict. Ukraine recently appealed for “dronations” to build its own drone army, as well as to purchase buy 200 military reconnaissance drones. The unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have proven a pivotal advantage in the war up until now, as they’re used to identify enemy positions and direct fire.
Tactics to counter drones are evolving quickly, but while Justin Bronk of the Royal United Services Institute told the BBC that electronic countermeasures are becoming more sophisticated, he also stressed that drones remain a huge asset in combat.
“Both sides in Ukraine have been able to very rapidly exploit that real-time video picture, to call down artillery fire and quickly correct it so that it’s very, very accurate, even when using old school unguided artillery, on to enemy forces,” he said.
A complex political landscape
The White House’s announcement comes ahead of moves from both President Biden and President Putin to mediate tensions beyond Ukraine.
President Putin is preparing to travel to Iran next week, where he’ll meet with Iranian leader Ebrahim Raisi and Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for a summit to discuss the conflict in Syria.
“The president’s visit to Tehran is being planned for July 19,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov announced on Tuesday.
As the New York Times notes, Putin no doubt hopes to gauge and solidify any economic and military support the two nations might offer to oppose the West’s support of Ukraine and sanctions against Russia. As a NATO member, Turkey occupies a key strategic position.
To complicate matters, Russia and Iran, which share close links, are both military allies and key political sponsors of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Turkey, which has provided the setting for peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, has offered military backing to the Free Syrian Army and other rebel groups currently battling al-Assad’s forces in Syria’s last remaining opposition strongholds.
Iran’s latest gesture in sending drones to Russia looks like a considered reinforcement of the countries’ close ties, which may also receive a boost from next week’s summit. It’s a particularly strong gesture considering that, in its attempts to work around the limits imposed by Western sanctions, Russia is cutting into Iran’s share of the global oil market.
According to Iran’s Fars news agency as reported by the BBC however, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani Chafi claims that the country’s technological cooperation with Russia predates the invasion of Ukraine.
“There has been no special development in this relationship recently,” Mr. Chafi emphasized — without directly addressing the U.S.’s intelligence announcement on Iranian drones.
What does this mean in terms of Biden’s next moves?
White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan also noted on Monday that Iranian drones were used by Yemen’s Houthi rebels to attack Saudi Arabia before a ceasefire was instigated earlier this year. This ties into President Biden’s travel plans.
President Biden will visit Israel and Saudi Arabia this week. Neither country has so far imposed sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, however both occupy sensitive positions regarding the states involved.
Israel considers Iran, which calls for Israel’s destruction, its biggest threat. Iran sees Israel as a blockade to its own expansion, and a U.S.-leaning enemy. Saudi Arabia, naturally, does not look favorably on Iran, given its support of the Houthi rebel forces.
So, in a nutshell?
In short, Putin’s continued amity with Iran doesn’t just spell potential disaster for Ukraine. It’s also a restatement of defiance by both countries against the U.S. that was evident even before the invasion.
In January, more than a month before Russia launched its attack on Ukraine, Iranian President Raisi visited Putin in Moscow. According to The New York Times, he told him that the time had come for Russia and Iran to confront “the power of the Americans with an increased synergy between our two countries.”
The White House’s decision to publicly call out Iran’s armament of Russia is a recognition of the broader connotation of those actions. Despite the strain on relations and heightened competition imposed by the West’s oil sanctions, Russia and Iran are standing together. Increasingly, they are also standing against America.
