Four years after Covid-19 first swept the globe, U.S. health officials believe it’s finally safe to say that we’ve passed the deadliest period. But we’re not in the clear, and we might never be. A Centers for Disease Control and Prevention official said we’ve exited the pandemic stage and entered a new one: endemic.
“At this point, Covid-19 can be described as endemic throughout the world,” Aron Hall, the deputy director for science at the CDC’s coronavirus and other respiratory viruses division, told NPR.
But what exactly does this new label mean? Well, in short, Covid is here to stay — which has been made clear this summer amid a spike in cases. We took a closer look at what this new classification means and whether you should continue to take precautions.
What does endemic mean exactly?
According to the CDC, an endemic disease is “when cases are generally constant and occur regularly and in a specific location.” (This shouldn’t be confused with an epidemic, in which there’s a sudden spike in disease cases, or a pandemic, in which a disease has spread over several countries or continents.)
Malaria is a prime example of an endemic disease, and it’s commonly found in Central and South America, Africa, Asia, and Eastern Europe.
There’s a predictability to something that’s endemic, usually. And predictability is good, right?
However, in the case of Covid-19, the term’s meaning is a bit fuzzier. For starters, not all experts agree that it’s time to refer to it as an endemic. Ashish Jha, M.D., MPH, told NPR that the virus has become endemic because “it’s something that’s just around that we have to manage on an ongoing basis,” while others say the virus is still too unpredictable to be labeled endemic.
Epidemiologist Katelyn Jetelina, Ph.D., MPH, predicts that it could take at least a decade to pin down a predictable transmission pattern for SARS-CoV2, which causes Covid-19. “There’s still a lot of unpredictability with this virus,” she said. And she might have a point — the recent surge in Covid cases has already turned out to be much bigger than expected, with some even predicting it to be the largest summer wave on record. Last week, the World Health Organization issued a warning last week saying that the virus is increasing in at least 84 countries, including the U.S. So much for it being a remnant of the past.
Even though it dropped from the third to the 10th leading cause of death, the CDC projects that it will kill close to 50,000 people every year. So, being categorized as endemic doesn’t necessarily mean it’s as harmless as the common cold, for example.
What does this mean for CDC guidelines?
Covid’s latest classification doesn’t change any official recommendations or guidelines for how people should respond to the virus.
That means you should continue to stay up to date with your Covid-19 vaccines to avoid ending up in the hospital (or worse). Of course, you’ll also want to maintain good hygiene, like washing your hands for at least 20 seconds and cleaning frequently touched surfaces like door handles.
You might also want to consider masking up in risky situations, including indoor settings with poor ventilation, like a plane. This extra layer of protection is also recommended if you’re going to be around vulnerable people, including elderly adults.
If you follow these steps and still end up sick, stay home and seek medical care as soon as possible. Antiviral treatments can help lower your risk for severe illness, but the CDC notes that they need to be started within five to seven days after symptoms appear, which include fever and chills, sore throat, and shortness of breath.
