Here’s what experts predict as winter bears down.
This winter is already prompting concerns of another surge in coronavirus cases, and Dr. Anthony Fauci is making grim predictions and warning of a “double whammy” that could even affect those who’ve been fully vaccinated. These are the three factors to keep an eye on:
Immunity
About 59 percent of Americans have been fully vaccinated, and the U.S. has seen enough recorded cases to account for 14 percent of the population, according to The Atlantic. But the trouble is it’s not clear exactly what percentage of Americans have immunity against the coronavirus from vaccines, infections, or both. To complicate matters even more, immunity also depends on the person — those with underlying health conditions tend to have lower protection against the vaccine, according to infectious disease epidemiologist Abigail Norris-Turner.
This uncertainty makes it tough (if not impossible) to determine the country’s overall immunity, but we can look to other nations. Several European countries with high vaccination rates, like Germany, are seeing a rise in coronavirus cases as the temperatures start to drop.
The emergence of new variants
The Delta variant hasn’t only caused a spike in cases — it has also, coupled with supply chain issues, led to a shortage of at-home Covid-19 tests.
And Delta isn’t the only variant out there: Beta and Gamma have also chipped away at immunity, but these won’t be the only ones to take shape. As long as the virus continues to spread, mutations will happen. In fact, Dr. Stuart Ray said in an interview with John Hopkins Medicine that new variants of Covid-19 are detected every week.
Luckily, unlike last year, many have some form of protection thanks to the vaccine.
The spread of the virus
Last winter, the U.S. saw a steep rise in Covid-19 cases as the weather turned colder and people started to gather indoors more often. This year might not be any different if more mitigation practices aren’t put into place. But the silver lining is that this time around, the country could come out with even more immunity, whether through infection or increased vaccination rates. That’s why epidemiologist Jon Zelner is calling this winter Covid-19’s “last stand” — but only time will tell.
