A look at the New York Times/Siena College poll — and more.
The race for the White House is going to be close, new polling shows. With a little over eight weeks until Election Day, recent surveys indicate that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are neck and neck, and that Tuesday’s debate could tilt the scales. Here’s a look at the data, including which candidate holds a slight edge in key battleground states.
The new Times/Siena poll
The New York Times and Siena College poll found that Trump has a small lead over the VP. Close to 1,700 likely voters nationwide were asked last week who they’d pick between the two candidates if the election were held today: 48 percent said Trump, 47 percent said Harris, and 5 percent said they’re undecided or refused to pick between the two. Those results are very similar to what the poll found in July, right after President Biden dropped out of the race.
The survey suggests that voters are somewhat unfamiliar with Harris and her policies. More than 28 percent said they felt that they needed to know more about the VP, while only 9 percent felt the same way about Trump. Tuesday’s debate — the only scheduled head-to-head before Nov. 5 — could be her chance to showcase her vision for America.
When it comes to the issues, 55 percent of voters said Trump would do a better job at managing the economy, while 54 percent said they trusted Harris more on abortion. Trump also leads on immigration (53 percent to Harris’ 43 percent), and Harris is more trusted when it comes to preserving democracy (50 percent to 45 percent).
What the other polls show
According to an average of recent polls, Harris leads by two points with 49 percent of support. She’s also up in the Quinnipiac University poll (49 percent to 48 percent), the Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Wall Street Journal poll (48 percent to 47 percent), and the Ipsos/ABC News poll (52 percent to 46 percent) — all of which were conducted in late August.
What the polls say about the battleground states
Harris has a small advantage in swing states, according to national polling averages calculated by the Times. Her largest lead is in Wisconsin, where she has 50 percent of support compared to Trump’s 47 percent. In Michigan, she leads 49 percent to 47 percent, and in Pennsylvania, she’s got a one-point edge, leading 49 percent to 48 percent. In Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona the two are tied at 48 percent of support.
Of course, polls are not always right — especially when it comes to predicting how Trump will do in a race. For one, the former president is popular among voters who tend to sit midterms out, which makes it difficult for pollsters who typically rely on past turnout to model a future election. And there’s the issue of “shy Trump voters,” who are less likely to answer phone surveys and may be distorting polls. But polling’s undergone a major overhaul since 2016 and analysts are optimistic that they’re better able to detect which way Americans are likely to lean.
