Some experts are calling it a “blow” to Putin’s image.
There’s a dramatic power struggle going on in Russia right now after what amounted to a near insurrection. Over the course of 36 hours, Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, who leads the private army that fights alongside Russian troops, accused military leadership of killing some of his men and then staged a revolt before ultimately backing down.
Though Prigozhin has denied trying to overthrow the government, U.S. officials say the brief uprising still raises a number of questions about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decades-long reign. “The fact that you have from within someone directly questioning Putin’s authority, directly questioning the premises that – upon which he launched this aggression against Ukraine — that, in and of itself, is something very, very powerful,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken told CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday.
As of June 27, Russia has dropped charges against the Wagner paramilitary group for its armed insurrection attempt.
“During the investigation of the case of the rebellion, it was established that its participants stopped their actions directly aimed at committing a crime, the case was closed,” the FSB press service said in a statement on Tuesday.
While short-lived, the insurrection is unprecedented in Russia’s recent history, so here’s a breakdown of what we know about the situation and what experts are saying about it.
What happened with Russia’s attempted mutiny?
Russia has come out of a very tumultuous past few days, to say the least. It all began late Friday, when Prigozhin announced his “march for justice” toward Moscow to topple leadership. “There are 25,000 of us and we are going to find out why there is such chaos in the country,” Prigozhin exclaimed. “Everyone who wants, join us.”
Along the way, Prigozhin took control of military facilities with seemingly very little pushback from Russian troops and even some cheers from locals. Up until this point, Prigozhin’s Wagner forces had been fighting alongside Russia’s regular army in Ukraine, but there has been growing discord between the two forces. For months, Prigozhin has been sharply criticizing Russian military leadership, calling the top brass incompetent and traitorous.
The breaking point didn’t come until after he publicly accused Russia of launching a deadly missile strike on 30 of his men, prompting him to seek retaliation. Over the course of the short rebellion, Wagner forces shot down at least six Russian helicopters and one military plane. But after coming within 120 miles of Moscow, Prigozhin stopped his forces, and by Saturday evening, agreed to a deal brokered by Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko, one of Putin’s closest allies. Under the conditions, both Prigozhin and his fighters have been exiled to Belarus. So far, Prigozhin has maintained that it wasn’t a coup but rather a protest of the Ministry of Defense and its attempt to make his mercenaries sign government contracts.
Still, some predict that there could be more fallout to come: “This is an unfolding story, and I think we’re in the midst of a moving picture,” Blinken told CBS’ Face the Nation a day after the truce. “We haven’t seen the last act.
How did Putin respond?
Putin wasted no time in condemning Prigozhin. In a state-run TV address on Saturday morning after the rebellion, he called it “a stab in the back,” and all of those involved would “suffer inevitable punishment.”
But, then on Monday night, the Russian president held another televised address, where he seemed to strike a more conciliatory tone, even calling the “vast majority” of Wagner fighters patriots. He also sought to quell fears about national security, saying the mutiny would’ve been crushed if they hadn’t halted their advance.
“All the necessary decisions were immediately taken to neutralize the threat that had arisen,” he said. “An armed rebellion would have been suppressed in any case.”
Who is Wagner group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin?
Yevgeny Prigozhin has a pretty shady past. After being convicted of robbery and other crimes in 1981, he spent a decade in prison before becoming a hot dog seller upon his release. He then went on to become a prominent Russian businessman, whose lucrative catering contracts with the Kremlin earned him the nickname “Putin’s Chef.”
After amassing a sizable fortune, Prigozhin started a private military army known as the Wagner Group. As CBS points out, these kinds of groups aren’t unheard of — for instance, the U.S. used private military companies like Blackwater during the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. There are some differences in how Wagner operates, though. For instance, it has been known to recruit fighters from Russian prisons in exchange for pardons, though it appears this practice has been stopped.
That’s not all: The Wagner group has also been accused of atrocities on the battlefield, such as mass murder and rape, on the battlefield in Ukraine and in other areas like Africa. Even though the Wagner group has denied these claims and continued to operate without a hitch, Prigozhin himself is still considered a wanted man in the eyes of the FBI. Federal officials have offered a $250,000 reward for any information on Prigozhin’s alleged interference in several U.S. elections over the past few years, including in 2016. He even appeared to acknowledge his apparent involvement last year: “Gentlemen, we interfered, we interfere, and we will interfere.”
As of June 27, Prigozhin’s whereabouts are unknown — but per NBC News, a plane belonging to him landed in Belarus this morning.
What are experts saying about the situation?
Analysts seem to agree that this sudden insubordination could hurt the Russian president’s reputation.
Michael McFaul, a former U.S. ambassador to Russia under President Obama, doesn’t think Putin’s power is “mortally weakened,” but acknowledged that he is “much weaker” now than before. Human rights lawyer Bill Browder, on the other hand, thought it marked a “devastating blow” to “Putin’s image as a strongman.”
“If a warlord with just 25,000 men is able to take over several cities in Russia and make it to Moscow unopposed, it shows that Putin’s authority as a dictator is completely fake,” he told NBC News.
Still, the dramatic challenge to Putin’s power isn’t exactly being celebrated as a win. While Blinken says it’s too soon to tell what the rebellion means, the chaos that ensued — however brief — isn’t a good sign, especially in a major world power like Russia. “When you have instability of any kind in a major country like Russia… that is cause for concern. So, it’s something that we’re watching very, very carefully,” Blinken said Sunday.
