Political consultant Brian Goldsmith weighs in on the current state of the race
As election results continue to filter in, and the presidential race remains too close to call, I checked in with my friend and political consultant Brian Goldsmith on Instagram Wednesday afternoon. Here’s what he had to say about what we’re seeing:
ON THE FAR-OFF POLLS
He attributes part of their inaccuracy to “so-called silent Trump supporters who didn’t want to admit to pollsters they were voting for.” But beyond a possible fear of sharing private information, Goldsmith believes, “I think there was a flaw in the voting we need to analyze and understand.”
ON THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE
Joe Biden is currently leading the popular vote by about 3 million votes — a margin Goldsmith says could stretch to 6 or 7 million votes once everything is counted. He also mentions it’s notable the Republican Party hasn’t won the popular vote in a presidential election in a while. “It’s not a sustainable business model to lose the popular vote election after election.”
ON THE MIDWEST:
“Biden’s lead in Michigan and Wisconsin look insurmountable.” Some have projected he’s won Arizona, and he’s picked up one electoral vote in Nebraska, which means he may not doesn’t need Pennsylvania, North Carolina or Georgia.
Despite a potential recount in Wisconsin, Goldsmith says even former Republican Gov. Scott Walker was “pretty honest about the recount not shifting many votes.”
ON PENNSYLVANIA, GEORGIA AND OTHER SWING STATES:
“Pennsylvania’s got a rich history of Election Day voting,” Goldsmith says. “I think that’s part of why the count is so slow.”
Although President Trump’s currently leading in Georgia, Goldsmith says there are still a lot of mail-in ballots to be counted there. “It’s going to be very tight one way or the other,” he said. “Whether Biden can net like 100,000 votes is yet to be determined. We just don’t know yet.
“The fact that it resembles Virginia right now more than South Carolina, is significant,” he added “You see these metro areas and the suburban areas surrounding them moving to Democrats.”
Goldsmith is still unsure what might happen in North Carolina, but predicts Nevada will go to Biden.
“Even if it isn’t Trump [running] in 2024,” he said. “ It will be someone from the Trump party.”